AFL Aussie Rules
2018-07-28 - Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 19
Venue : GMHBA Stadium
27st July 2018, 2.10PM AEST
Overview :
This is heating up to be one of the best finish to the regular season in years. There are still 12 teams possibly making the finals but after this week, I believe one, possibly even two may not make it bearing any catastrophe. I believe Essendon will be the likely casualty this week and Geelong are not far off as their next two games are against Richmond and Hawks.
Geelong are currently 9th on the ladder, winning 2 of their last 5 games. The two wins came against Melbourne and Sydney while the losses were against Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Richmond.
Chris Scott may count himself very lucky to even be in the position he is in at the moment after his side falling being by 29 points in the final quarter. I did not see the Cats having the ability to come back but the Cats managed to unsettle Melbourne and win the game after the siren.
On the other hand, Brisbane Lions are 16th on the ladder, winning 3 of their last 5 games. The three wins came against Fremantle, Carlton and Hawthorn. Despite picking up only 4 wins all season long, Chris Fagen in my view has done a good job in heading the right direction for these young Lion players. The Lions were competitive in many of the games and there were only two blowouts this season and that came against Richmond and North Melbourne.
Both teams are evenly matched in goal accuracy and goal assist leading them similar number of goals a game. The Lions have a clear edge in disposal efficacy, however the Lions have a poor number in contested possession makes them vulnerable in a physical game.
The departure of veteran Tom Rockcliff seems to have opened the door for younger players to step up their game in this Brisbane Lions side. Beams and Zorko have played well but it’s the younger players like Hugh McCluggage, Nick Roberson, Alex Witherden, Eric Hipwood and Cameron Rayner that have stepped up.
Gary Ablett seem to have turn the clock back late in the game collecting almost half of his disposals and five inside 50 in the final term alone. Ablett has shown he is still an elite player in patches but his consistency through the game is my biggest concern.
Geelong midfield of the Selwood brothers, Dangerfield, Duncan and
Ablett were meant to be a super midfield but so far, they have been above average at best. For whatever the reason, they cant seem to play their best football together and it could be a fitness issue with rumours suggesting Dangerfield is not fully fit.
Stefan Martin will play a huge role in this game if Brisbane were to have any chance against the Cats at the Cattery. Martin will need to dominate the ruck contest against Rhys Stanley to give his young team a chance in competing against a much stronger and experience Cats midfield.
Luke Hodge who is back in the team will also play a pivotal role in defence. Hodge’s coordination at the back is part of the reason why the Lions have managed to keep it close in most games. His experience and vision has helped these younger players. At his age, Hodge is still never worried to jump in a contested possession or a challenge leading the way by example. If I can use a phrase to describe Hodge, working it hard to spot the general by working like a soldier.
The Betting Verdict
I think Geelong will win this game as this is at their home ground. Geelong has always been a strong team at home and The Cats rarely loses at home. We saw how they fought back from a 30+ points down in the 4th quarter to win the game after the Siren against Melbourne.
While it is a fortress at the Cattery, Geelong performance all round have been well below expectation in my view. There has been some good performance in the mix, but on average they are playing very mediocre football.
With the line at +32.5 I would back Brisbane given their current form. It may raise a few eyebrows going against Geelong at home and a below average away Lions team but their recent form have instil some confidence that they will be decent enough to keep this an interesting game. Do not hold your breath but I’d fancy a young Brisbane Lions side prevent Geelong on building a huge percentage this week.
The Pick :
Geelong by 25 points
