AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-22 - West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES :Preliminary Finals 2
Venue : Optus Stadium
22nd September 2018, 1:20PM AWST
Overview :
Adam Simpson’s side are well rested heading into this Preliminary Final game having only played twice in the last month. The Eagles however will have some work to do with their performance against Collingwood not as good as many expected.
Eagles may be dangerous going forward but their inability to hold and break up Collingwood in the middle are indicators that Melbourne could very well exploit the same route.
After two huge win by Melbourne, Simon Goodwin will be delighted in the way things are shaping up for the Demons. Goodwin may have a bunch of players who lack Finals Experience but the quality they bring to the side cannot get any better.
Both sides are high scoring teams this season with Melbourne being the number one team in the competition in scoring. If the game does turn out to a shoot-out, its hard to see Eagles keeping up the scoring given that Melbourne are likely to have the bulk of the possession.
Despite Melbourne winning in round 22, a lot have put them off as the Eagles was without Kennedy and Darling limped off early. No doubt the Eagles were without two of their big stars, but we analyze the game carefully, Melbourne had decent control of the game in large portions of it.
Josh Kennedy looks far from fit in his last game against Collingwood. His presences was probably more of a decoy than anything else. Kennedy seems slow of the burst and kicking seems off. I am unsure how much help would the extra week off assist in his recovery, but I believe Kennedy might still be lacking match fitness.
Christian Petracca maturity has in someway caught me off guard. Petracca is a good player but his performance last week against Hawks impressed me as he was able to keep calm and play the right ball in tight positions.
Elliot Yeo is one of the most unsung hero you will ever get in the modern football era. Prior to this season, Yeo is asked to fill gaps up due to the preference such as Priddis and Mitchell in the middle. As we have seen this year, Yeo clearly has the ability to be the “leader” in the middle and he must be stopped if the Demons wants to come up top. In the 4th quarter against Collingwood, the Pies failed to stop Yeo, giving him kicks inside 50 and on 3 occasion, the balled ended up in Kennedy or Darling’s hands.
Clayton Oliver whom many who may not have heard of him better start marking his name down. He is one of the best young midfielders in the game and I just love the addition he brings to the team. I still believe Oliver has room to grow but his influence in the middle will be key.
If Oliver has a better game than Elliot Yeo, the Eagles are in trouble. I do not think Oliver will be used to tag Yeo but instead, James Harmers have done a good job of late shutting key opponents down. If Yeo has a big game and the Demons fail to nullify his threat, the Eagles are in prime position to win.
Shady's Verdict:
Optus Stadium arguably has one of biggest differential in noise made by the home and away supporters. Optus Stadium only has a capacity of 60,000, but the noise level created due to the Stadium is structured is ridiculously loud. For those of you who have been to Optus Stadium and the MCG, you will be aware that the noise at Optus Stadium can be louder than MCG. Therefore, the Eagles do have the edge and they should be clear favorites due to this.
I could be wrong, but I believe from the start that the Eagles will struggle in Finals football due to their lack of handball disposals and number of disposals. Only Carlton and Gold Coast Suns have fewer number of disposals and as we are all aware they are arguably two of the worse teams in the competition. Fortunately for Eagles, they have a very good forward line and one of the best ruckman in the competition when he is fit.
Melbourne came to Perth last month and walked away with a win. Simon Goodwin’s side knows what is required for them to win again in Perth and I truly believe that Melbourne have a great opportunity.
The Demons have peaked at a perfect time and their last two games would likely settle their finals nerves. They allowed the Hawks back into the game last week but did really well to come up top late in the game.
West Coast in my view are clear favorites but for those who have followed me all season long, you would know that I do not back favorites for the sake of it. Eagles were challenged by the Pies two weeks ago and the Pies created problems for the Eagles when they moved the ball via hand in the middle. Expect more of the same by Demons and with Gawn likely to win the Hit outs, the Melbourne midfielders will get first use of the ball and should punish Eagles.
I’m backing the Demons to come up top, against all odds against a possibly 55 thousand home fans and make the Grand Final.
A lot of local punters are jumping onto the Eagles to win and I expect the odds for Eagles to drop and Melbourne to increase. For those wanting to back Demons, waiting to gameday might be a good option and for those backing Eagles, jump in early!
The Pick :
Demons by 12 points
