Greek League
2008-03-08 - Panionios vs PAOK Thessaloniki
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
Those teams look close when one sees the table, but i think we have a clear pick here judging on the form and performance levelPANIONIOS
Panionios are overcoming a slow start in the league and are fighting for a playoff spot (teams in places 2-5 will fight for the CL spots this season in Greece,much like the Dutch system). They made a very competent appearence this season in the UEFA cup, going out only in the last minutes of their game against Bordeaux. In Greece they have a decent form of 4-0-2 including a 2-3 away victory at AEK Athens but also a 0-4 defeat in the hands of Olympiacos.
For this match Coach Ewald Lienen will miss defender Berthe and midfielders Lourenso and Delura but he has done well without thise players in the last couple of games. Heavy artillery striker Djebbour will be paired with charismatic ex Roma player Labros Choutos. Those two have scored all 7 goals in the last 5 Panionios games.
PAOK THESSALONIKI
To give an easy equivalent, PAOK is much like Newcastle in Premier League : the most successful club after the Big 3 teams, with huge support but clearly a club in decline. This season they have been taken over by ex legend Thodoris Zagorakis who is trying to make tings better from a board position, but the financial problems are still too big. PAOK is relying hugely in their hot home ground, this season more than others.
Just have a look at the stats, 8-2-2 at home and 1-1-9 away losing even to relegation favourites Ergotelis in the last round. Their form is not the best (2-1-3) but they have played matches against Olympiacos and Panathinaikos at home in those 6 games. In this game the will have to do without forwards Gonzales and Salmon and suspended Sergio Conceicao.
MATCH HISTORY
The past games show a clear trend towards under 2.5 goals.
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 3:1 22.04.2007
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 0:1 20.03.2006
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 2:0 26.09.2004
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 1:0 02.05.2004
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 2:0 04.01.2003
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 1:1 24.02.2002
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 1:1 12.02.2001
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 1:1 09.01.2000
Panionios Athens PAOK Saloniki 0:1 30.01.1999
VERDICT
This looks like a clear home win to me, when a 6-1-4 home team meets a 1-1-9 away team. Either teams are not missing any key players so the price of evens @William Hill, seems huge to me and i will take it.
The unders is also nicely priced at 1.6 but i will stick to the home win.
The Pick :
Panionios 2-0
