Champions League
2024-09-17 - Juventus vs PSV Eindhoven
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
UEFA Champions League - Day 1 of 8
Allianz Stadium, Torino, Piedmont, Italy (41,507)
Tuesday, 17th September 2024, 20:45 CET
Juventus Team News
Juventus was obviously eagerly anticipating the new season of the Champions League and has played only 0-0 at Empoli, which is something we've sadly seen from so many favourites over the past weekend. For Juventus it has been a long wait as they were absent from the Champions League last season, so they're eager to get their return off to a flying start.
Juventus just got a new coach in Thiago Motta, the famed 2-7-2 formation inventor who did wonders with Bologna last season. The first two rounds were incredible as Juventus got easy 3-0 and 0-3 wins against Como and Verona respectively, making them look silly, but then offense stopped producing as Juventus played 0-0 at home against Roma and on the road against Empoli.
Do note, however, that Juventus hasn't yet conceded a goal in four rounds of Serie A.
PSV Team News
PSV is, as usual lately, dominating the Dutch league with nothing but wins. Twenty goals scored in five wins. However, this does not translate to success in Europe, and we can consider PSV a team of a Europa League contender quality, not really one to play at eye level with the real top teams in Europe.
Last year they were lucky as they were drawn against Lens and Sevilla in the group, so they managed to exit it and face Borussia Dortmund in the knockout stage, where they lost with 1-1 at home and a 2-0 defeat in Dortmund.
PSV is a very tricky team to prepare your tactics against, as coach Bosz is all about offense and PSV can score anytime as a result. They got world class players in Bakayoko, Tillman, Veerman and Schouten, and Luuk de Jong is still carrying the offense.
Probable Lineups
Juventus (4-2-3-1): Di Gregorio - Savona, Bremer, Gatti, Cabal - Fagioli, Locatelli - Cambiaso, Koopmeiners, Mangula - Vlahovic. Coach Motta.
PSV (4-3-3): Benitez - Ledezma, Flamingo, Boscagli, Dams - Til, Schouten, Veerman - Bakayoko, de Jong, Tillman. Coach Bosz.
The Betting Market
Juventus is a 1.81 favourite, which is actually the same price they were assigned in a 0-0 against Roma and a bit higher than the 1.71 we got against Empoli a few days ago, a match that also ended 0-0.
Over 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome when it comes to totals but just by a bit, as the price is 1.80, while the BTTS-Yes is priced at 1.75.
This would indicate that the bookmakers don't really know what will happen. According to our experience, it's always the side of the higher quality that dictates the proceedings, and that's Juventus, and Juventus will approach this like a derby and try to keep it low-scoring.
The Betting Verdict
PSV always scores, is that right? Yes, it is most of the time, as this team plays very offensively. But even they tone it down a bit for the biggest matches as they need balance, and Juventus will definitely want to make sure that their own net is safe before they launch their own attacks. This seems to be what the marriage between Juventus and Motta is bringing us so far. A team with a defensive identity just got a coach who gives them plenty of possession. How can you score against that?
Juventus allowed xG of 0.18, 0.42, 0.45 and 0.38 so far in Serie A. We say they have a higher chance of getting a clean sheet than the 38% as indicated by the price of 2.62. Bet on Juventus to not concede here.
Since it's a bet with such high odds, and the time is working in your favour, as the match progresses and PSV is on 0 goals, consider cashing out for a certain profit. Especially if Juventus takes the lead and PSV starts taking more risk.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 1-0 PSV
