Italian Serie A
2025-10-29 - Genoa vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Wednesday, 29 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Genoa Team News
After the home 0-0 against Parma - a match in which they were favoured to win - came the 2-1 defeat at Torino. Genoa took the lead in the 7th minute and actually did quite well, posting 11 shots and an xG of almost 2.00, but eventually Torino scored a winner in the 90th minute. This defeat means that Genoa is now at the bottom of the table, alone at 3 points, with only four goals scored.
This isn't a fluke or an accident, this is a true value of Genoa's quality at this moment. This is a side not bereft of talent and of quality players, but a side that's out of form and that can't seem to find a game plan that works.
Cremonese Team News
Cremonese proceeded to impress the Italian general public with their Serie A displays this season right after they were promoted from Serie B. Few, if any newly promoted sides have done this well. They held a 1-0 lead against Atalanta until the 75th minute and then conceded an equalizer to get their fifth draw of the season. Cremonese is still down to a single defeat, the 4-1 at Inter Milan at the beginning of this month.
This is your classic tough-defending Italian side that launches counter attacks, but not like those direct counter attacks that any team can do. Cremonese is a bit slower but they still know how to bring danger into the box and finish the play. So, on one hand they're difficult to break down, and on the other they're a menace if you let them come near your goal. It's very difficult to prepare a game plan against such a side, and we argue Genoa doesn't have one.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Sabelli, Marcandalli, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Norton-Cuffy, Malinovsky, Ellertsson - Colombo. Coach Vieira (red card).
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Bondo, Grassi, Vazquez, Pezzella - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Nicola.
The Betting Market
Genoa is priced at 1.85 after being a 2.10 favourite against Parma and failing to do anything about it as the match ended 0-0. It makes no sense whatsoever. Cremonese is a trickier team to play against, as indicated by them only losing once this season.
Under 2.5 Goals is supposed to be a banker at 1.53, which is the lowest price you'll see on Serie A matches this season after it was about 1.57 in 2024/25. The bookmakers must have lost money last year.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.20 and that's really asking a lot from Genoa and Cremonese; particularly Genoa. The NO option is priced at 1.62.
The Betting Verdict
It's difficult to try to imagine a scenario in which Genoa proceeds to win this fixture against the stubborn Cremonese. One would be betting on a trend reversal without having any tangible reason to do so, just for the sake of it. If we exclude the two cup matches against Vicenza and Empoli, Genoa hasn't scored at home this season. And they played Lecce and Parma so they certainly should have.
As Genoa can't win and Cremonese can't lose, all the value is on visitors here, especially as we can practically get evens on the Double Chance.
In case of Bet365 it actually is evens as the price on Asian Handicap +0.5 on Cremonese is 2.00 despite the price on Double Chance: Cremonese or Draw being 1.91 and they're the same thing. Always check both markets at your bookmaker of choice when you're placing a Double Chance bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 1-1 Cremonese
