Rugby League

2025-06-18 - Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Queensland v New South Wales
Rugby League : Australia : State of Origin 2
Venue : Optus Stadium in Perth
Wednesday 18th June 2025 - KO 1935 AEST

Queensland

Queensland are under pressure after an extremely flat performance in Game one. They struggled to generate momentum at any stage in the opener and were thoroughly outplayed in the middle third. Coach Billy Slater has resisted wholesale changes, but the Maroons will need a much-improved effort to keep the series alive.

Kalyn Ponga retains the No. 1 jersey keeping Reece Walsh out of the squad for at least one more match, while Cameron Munster and Tom Dearden are joined again in the halves after the sensational dumping of their number 7 and captain, Daly Cherry-Evans.

The forward pack remains powerful, with Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Moeaki Fotuaika, and Patrick Carrigan leading the Queensland hopes. Harry Grant starts at hooker, and Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai bring mobility and aggression on the edges.

Queensland Maroons Team changes – DCE has been dropped, Dearden will start, Fermor is dropped in favour of veteran Capewell, Loiero starts and Carrigan goes back to the bench, Holmes and Tabuai-Fidow switch positions and Kurt Mann makes his debut off the bench as the utility.

New South Wales

NSW enter Game two with momentum and confidence, aiming to win back-to-back series and possibly the start of a dynasty in response to the 8 in a row Queensland managed.

Their Game one win was built on defensive power and clinical execution, with Mitchell Moses and Nathan Cleary combining effectively in the halves. Cleary’s return to Origin after a long injury layoff was seamless, however Moses has suffered an injury in camp and Luai has been brought in to start. Dylan Edwards was rock-solid at fullback and the entire back 5 for NSW outperformed a weak Queensland effort.

The Blues have named the same team with just 2 forced changes detailed below, Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton forming a powerful centre pairing, and Brian To’o and Zac Lomax providing strike on the wings. Up front, Payne Haas, Max King, and Liam Martin bring aggression and work rate, while Isaah Yeo leads from lock and then the impressive bench comes on, NSW look very strong.

New South Wales Blues Team Changes – Mitch Barnett is out, replaced by Storm prop Stefano Utoikamanu and a late withdrawal for Mitch Moses, Jerome Luai has been brought in to start.

Odds

Queensland will start as underdogs here, $2.90 to $1.42, line is 6.5 points and combined points 41.5

The Betting Verdict

The 2025 State of Origin series heads west for Game 2, with New South Wales looking to seal the series at Optus Stadium in Perth on Wednesday, June 18. After a dominant 18-6 win in Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium, the Blues are one win away from back-to-back series victories—something they haven’t achieved since 2018–19.

Coach Laurie Daley has stuck with the formula that worked in Brisbane, and the Blues record in Perth supports that decision—they’ve won both previous Origin matches at Optus Stadium by a combined 18-82. Their ability to dominate neutral venues and their current form make them massive favourites to wrap up the series before the last match in Sydney.

Queensland’s challenge will be to match NSW’s intensity early and avoid being overrun in the first 20 minutes, something that was obvious in Game one. Their kicking game and discipline must improve, and they’ll need big performances from Munster, Dearden and Ponga to spark their attack. Queenslands backline will only become effective if they can win the middle, which will need an incredible turnaround from the opener.

The Blues cohesion, superior kicking game, and dominance at neutral venues give them the edge. Queensland will likely lift on defence, but unless they find another gear in attack, NSW are well poised to seal the series in straight sets and possibly take the series 3-0.

With their backs to the wall, I expect a much better start from the Maroons but if the momentum swings to the Blues it will be very difficult for Billy Slaters men to halt the juggernaut that is NSW at present.

Typically game two’s are much higher scoring matches, both matches played in Perth were the second in the series and they totalled 44 and 56 points, but with the desperation of Queensland needing to win, this match might become a tighter low scoring match.

As for the result, NSW should be strong enough to win comfortably outright, $1.42 is not a bad return. The line is set 6.5 points which NSW should cover and is the suggested option here for Game two.

Blues by 10 and first try scorer Zac Lomax $7.50