Rugby League
2025-06-29 - Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 29th June 2025 - KO 1400 AEST
Melbourne Storm
The Melbourne Storm enter the match in strong form, particularly at AAMI Park, where they have built a fortress over the years.
Their attacking potency has returned to full strength, thanks in large part to the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen who’s support play is second to none and the continued leadership of halves Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster in the halves.
Melbourne’s ability to post large scores has been on full display recently—evidenced by their 64–0 annihilation of the Wests Tigers and a clinical 38–14 victory over the Cowboys.
These results underscore their ability to dismantle opponents both through structured set plays, spontaneous brilliance and impeccable defence.
Melbourne are placed perfectly as we head towards the finals, sitting third, 9-4 and have now had all 3 byes for a solid run into September.
However, at times there are cracks in the Storm’s armour. Their away form has been patchy, including a surprise defeat to the Raiders, and there remain questions around their defensive intensity when placed under sustained pressure.
Still, on home turf, few sides are better coached or more confident, and history suggests they rise to the occasion in big matchups like this.
Melbourne Storm Team News - Xavier Coates, Stefano Utoikamanu and Trent Loiero come back into the team with Howarth out with illness.
Cronulla Sharks
Its notable the Sharks form has started to drop off a touch, after beating their opponents in round 11 at shark park 31-26, They’ve only won 1 of the past 4 matches, losing heavily to the Warriors and Roosters and narrowly to Brisbane in the last round by 6, a stark contrast to earlier in the season.
Cronulla’s backline, led by Ronaldo Mulitalo and breakout centre Kayal Iro, is finding cohesion, while Nicho Hynes continues to steer the team with poise. Encouragingly for the Sharks, they claimed a rare win at AAMI Park in 2024, beating the Storm 25–18—an achievement that could give them belief heading into this rematch.
Cronulla are 6th at the start of round 17, 8-7 and need to start winning again or risk the teams below them who are in good form forcing the sharks out of the 8.
That said, the Sharks overall record in Melbourne is poor, having won just three of their last sixteen visits to AAMI Park. The challenge for Cronulla will be to maintain composure under pressure and avoid early errors that the Storm so often punish.
In particular, their ability to hold the middle third and contain Melbourne’s second-phase play will be crucial if they’re to compete for 80 minutes.
Cronulla Sharks Team News – Oregon Kaufusi comes back in pushing Hamlin-Uele back to the bench.
Odds
Storm start favourites due to their amazing home record, $1.35 to $3.25, the line 9.5 points and total points is 46.5
The Betting Verdict
In what shapes as a heavyweight showdown in Round 17 of the NRL season, the Melbourne Storm host the Cronulla Sharks at AAMI Park. With both sides nestled in the top eight of the ladder, this clash carries significant implications for finals positioning, particularly for the Sharks.
Melbourne, long a dominant force at home, will look to reassert control against a shaky Sharks outfit that has begun to lose rhythm late in the season.
Melbourne have a commanding record over most teams, and it is no different against Cronulla, 30-18 with the last match going the way of the Sharks and the spoils shared 3-3 since 2022. At this venue though Cronulla struggle, 3-13 while the home team win 77% at AAMI park.
From a betting perspective, the Storm are deserved favourites, listed at $1.35 to win, with Cronulla at over $3.00. The total points line is set at 46.5—a nod to Melbourne’s free-scoring nature and both teams recent high-scoring games. With the Storm averaging over 30 points per game at home in 2025 and the “over” hitting in most of their recent fixtures, backing the over appears a strong option.
This match promises intensity, open play with attacking quality. While Cronulla are capable of springing an upset, Melbourne’s home dominance over the Sharks and superior big-game experience should prove the difference.
The logical betting play is Melbourne to win and cover the line, with an optional bet on total points going over 49.5.
The Pick :
Melbourne Storm 30-16 Cronulla Sharks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Melbourne to win comfortably and beat the line option of -9.5 points returning $1.91 with Bet365
