Italian Serie A
2025-09-20 - Bologna vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (36,000)
Saturday, 20 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Bologna Team News
Bologna, with one goal scored so far, actually did quite well in the first three rounds. They lost 1-0 to Roma and Milan on the road, and won 1-0 at home against Como. Now they have another winnable game against a mid-table opponent and are probably expecting a 1-0 win again.
Bologna doesn't seem to give away much when you look at the stats, but at times their defending looks awful as they allow the opponent to create chances too easily. If these don't result with a shot you don't see it in the xG -- this is far from a stable defensive team that you think it is. It's just that the opponents aren't making their defensive lapses count.
There is no doubt that Bologna will show us many more faces, from good defensive performances to surprising five-goal thrillers that you don't see coming. This is one of the trickiest sides to bet on (or against) in Serie A.
Genoa Team News
Genoa scored only one goal so far, the 92nd-minute equalizer at Como to ruin our bet on the hosts to take the points. In the other two matches, against Lecce and Juventus, Genoa didn't do much at all. However, two of these three sides are very difficult to score against -- Lecce is defensive by nature, Juventus is defensive and of much higher quality than Genoa.
The Como match should have seen at least three goals. The combined total xG was 4.17, most of it for Genoa, and it's a miracle that there were only two goals total. The chances Como and Genoa missed!
Because of the fact that Genoa equalized when they were forced to chase the score and open up, we think they will assume a similar approach in Bologna. If not at first, then at some point during the game. They learned that they can fight fire with fire, and learned that they can create good goalscoring chances.
When you look at stats only, you obviously see an underish team, as this 1-1 that should have been 2-2 skews the perception. Genoa is due an over and the bookmakers don't see it.
Probable Lineups
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski - Zortea, Lucumi, Heggem, Lykogiannis - Ferguson, Freuler - Orsolini, Fabbian, Cambiaghi - Castro. Coach Italiano.
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Norton-Cuffy, Ostigard, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Ellertsson, Carboni, Stanciu - Colombo. Coach Vieira.
The Betting Market
Bologna is a 1.83 favourite, while the bookmakers are very certain this match is going under the totals (1.53) and that at least one of the sides won't score (1.62). Meaning, 1-0 or 2-0 are the expected results. Might as well bet on a Win To Nil then, if you believe this.
The Betting Verdict
For some unexplainable reason, the meetings between these two constipated sides commonly result with a goal fest. Of nine meetings from 2020 calendar year onwards, none were goalless, one had 1 goal, eight had at least 2 goals, and of four out of those eight also went Over 2.5. Go figure. It's like examining an Eredivisie H2H.
We could try to more closely identify the situations in which sides like these two are pulled into a boring match. One is definitely when they face a big favourite, as tough defence is the most logical choice. The second is when they meet a side that refuses to break formation, such as Lecce. Then it's a deadlock.
But when there's no such external pressure, these sides - Bologna in particular - play normal football. We feel that there's lots of value in Over 2.5 Goals for 2.50 or so, but we'll need both teams to do the scoring to get to those totals. So BTTS-Yes is a better bet at 2.20, as we can get through even with a simple 1-1.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bologna 2-1 Genoa
