Italian Serie A
2025-09-20 - Udinese vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Friuli, Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy (25,144)
Saturday, 20 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Udinese Team News
Udinese now has a completely average squad in Serie A terms upon selling their biggest stars in the summer transfer window, but surprisingly, this resulted in better team cohesion and better performances altogether. Instead of relying on one or two players to do the work, now everyone has to.
And here we have a side that would have three wins out of three if they were only able to beat Verona at home. That match ended 1-1, and in the second round Udinese won 1-2 at Giuseppe Meazze against Inter. To confirm that win, Udinese proceeded to get an important 0-1 visiting win against Pisa.
Without any doubt whatsoever, Udinese will look to score first here. This is how they approach the games against big teams. No fear, go forward, score first. It usually works. The November 2024 match against Atalanta in Bergamo is the perfect example. Udinese took the game to Atalanta, unsettled them with this courageous approach, scored first and took the 0-1 to half-time. Atalanta had to work really hard to eventually win the game 2-1.
Inter got a taste of the same medicine three weeks ago, albeit with a changed role, as it was Udinese that overturned the score.
Milan Team News
Five days after celebrating his 40th birthday, Luka Modric scored his first goal for AC Milan that was also the winning goal against Bologna. Milan only won it 1-0 but it should have been four, if only someone else was leading the line and not Santiago Gimenez. With this dude, you can create a one-on-one with the goalkeeper for him, twice in one match, and he'll still manage to botch it. Twice.
Milan will continue to operate as a pedestrian, strikerless team that has some superb quality individuals in Modric, Saelemakers and Pulisic. On a good day, this is enough to beat someone in this league. On a bad one, it's not even enough to beat Cremonese at home.
Expect some more ups and downs from Milan, the problems aren't going away simply because they played a good game at home against Bologna. What problems exactly, you ask? You can read about them here every week. This week we'll emphasize the fact that Milan failed to bring in Rasmus Hojlund after chasing him for a month so Napoli gladly pounced on the opportunity, that Juventus brought the incredible Lois Openda, and that Milan is still stuck with Santi Gimenez.
Probable Lineups
Udinese (3-5-2): Sava - Palma, Kristensen, Solet - Ehizibue, Atta, Karlstrom, Lovric, Kamara - Davis, Bravo. Coach Runjaic.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan - Pulisic, Gimenez. Coach Allegri.
In the continued absence of Rafael Leao, coach Max Allegri - who won't be on the bench because he got a red card - will likely continue to play 3-5-2 with Pulisic and Gimenez up front.
The Betting Market
As much as you'd want to think the 1.83 on AC Milan here is an opportunity that might have some value, we'd advise against it. An unstable team with notoriously careless defence, with more issues than a troubled teenager, against an offensive side that's a known giant-killer. No, thanks.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10 while we can get 1.73 for the Under, and actually both bets make sense here, depending on how you look at it. You either think another low-scoring game is on the cards, which it most likely is, or you'll go for the 2.10 value.
The BTTS market is set at 1.95 for Yes and 1.80 for No. The latter would be a really foolish bet.
The Betting Verdict
We still don't trust Milan, not one bit, and Udinese coach Runjaic will certainly feel the same way and look for glaring holes to exploit in Milan's football. Most notably in defence. Bologna couldn't do much on the road but Udinese will try to take the game to Milan the same way they did against the other Milano club, Inter, not so long ago in a 1-2 away win. There's no doubt about that.
Even if the outcome here might be different and the big dog wins for a change, we still see this as a game in which both teams will do some scoring regardless of the final result.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Udinese 1-1 Milan
