Italian Serie A
2025-09-28 - Pisa vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Arena Garibaldi, Pisa, Tuscany, Italy (14,869)
Sunday, 28 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Pisa Team News
After getting an underserved point at Atalanta with 1-1, Pisa proceeded to lose the next three Serie A matches, plus the recent cup outing against Torino. And it's not like they didn't deserve it.
Pisa rarely goes forward, and has barely enough quality to sit back and soak up the pressure. They can go forward only when they got nothing left to lose or/and when the opponent relaxes. If there will be no major changes in the roster and in how they play football, Pisa will be relegated well before the end of the season. This isn't good enough.
Fiorentina Team News
Good old Fiorentina didn't disappoint the disbelievers in their quality and failed to get a single win so far in Serie A. Opponents were the mighty Cagliari, Torino and Como, plus a home game against Napoli that was cleanly lost 1-3. Well, at least there's a clean sheet against Torino - the match ended 0-0 - so you can't say Fiorentina never keeps clean sheets.
This is a very poor run but it can't go on forever, Fiorentina won't be a relegation candidate in this league. They'll start getting their wins soon enough and will continue to be a shaky favourite that somehow hobbles to a mid-table finish.
Probable Lineups
Pisa (3-5-2): Šemper - Bonfanti, Caracciolo, Canestrelli - Toure, Akinsanmiro, Aebischer, Marin, Leris - Moreo, Nzola. Coach Gilardino.
Fiorentina (3-5-1-1): De Gea - Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fazzini, Gosens - Gudmundsson - Kean. Coach Pioli.
Gudmundsson returns for Fiorentina.
The Betting Market
The price on Fiorentina is 2.25. Despite the visitors being a team of much higher quality, they're a notoriously unreliable favourite that can't ever seem to win when you expect them to. Hence the higher odds.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67 and it looks fair. Expecting these two sides to push the game over 2.5 is a tall order, and it will happen only if Pisa scores and if Fiorentina manages to score the second goal. Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.95 and you'd probably be better off if you just placed a bet on the Over instead.
The Betting Verdict
Yes this is Fiorentina and yes Fiorentina finds a way to concede a goal from just about everyone, including relegation candidates. But a game against Pisa could be just what the doctor ordered. The minnows are unable to bring the game to the opponent unless allowed to, and we know for a fact this game will be played on Pisa's half of the pitch.
A good team wouldn't let Pisa cross the centre line. Fiorentina will therefore let them cross it, likely at the worst possible time, when they relax after getting the lead. So we can't be totally sure the result will be in Fiorentina's favour. But for 2.25 it's worth a shot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pisa 1-2 Fiorentina
