English Premier
2026-01-04 - Fulham vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 4th January 2025 - Kick Off 3pm
This game is live on TV
Fulham
The strong work that Marco Silva has done in making sure Fulham are a solid Premier League club has not gone unnoticed and there are still questions about whether he will decide to move on at the end of his contract. The current contract expires at the end of the season and Silva has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal having previously expressed his disappointment at the lack of ambition he feels the Fulham board have shown.
One big vacancy has already opened up a few miles away at Stamford Bridge, and that could be available in the summer, but Marco Silva has to be given credit for keeping everyone at Fulham focused on the task at hand and finishing as high as they can in the Premier League table. The side are 11th in the standings through the halfway stage of the season and Fulham are very much contending for European Football again.
Fulham are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games and had won 3 in a row before the 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park on Thursday, while the sole defeat in that positive run was in the League Cup Quarter Final at Newcastle United in mid-December. They had lost consecutive Premier League games at Craven Cottage, but Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 here most recently.
Kenny Tete, Ryan Sessegnon and Joshua King are all doubts.
Liverpool
Arne Slot has been much more encouraged by some of the defensive numbers his Liverpool team have been producing over the last month, but he has admitted they need to show more in the final third. The chances were there on New Year's Day in the goalless draw with Leeds United, but Liverpool missed the likes of Mo Salah and Alexander Isak to put a finishing touch to the opportunities created.
Despite the dropped points, Liverpool remain 4th in the Premier League table and 3 points clear of Chelsea and Manchester United in the race for the traditional Champions League places. The manager has made it clear that the focus is a top four finish this season and Liverpool will travel to West London with a 4-1-4 away record in the top flight.
Liverpool have quietly put together an 8 game unbeaten run, although the winning streak ended at 4 games after the draw with Leeds United. The Reds have won 3 of the last 4 away games played in all competitions, including the last 2 in succession at Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur.
Joe Gomez may travel, but the squad is otherwise unscathed from the last fixture played.
Head to Head
Last season Fulham took four points from Liverpool with the majority earned from a 3-2 win at Craven Cottage.
Prior to that, Liverpool had been unbeaten in 7 at this ground and had won 4 of those matches.
Prediction
This has the makings of being a potentially entertaining game in West London, despite both Fulham and Liverpool being involved in drab New Year's Day fixtures.
When the two clubs have faced one another in recent years, goals have followed and the feeling is that they will match up well again.
Liverpool deserve to be favourites having put together some positive results of late, although it should be noted that they have not always been the most convincing. While Arne Slot feels his team have improved defensively, there are still vulnerabilities and this Fulham team are capable of exposing those, even without some key performers in the squad.
Set pieces will be crucial and so the home team have to be encouraged by what they have seen from Liverpool in recent outings.
However, containing the visitors will still be a challenge for a Fulham team that had been better against Nottingham Forest and West Ham United, but continue to show defensive frailties. They do have some important figures back in the lineup to try and shore things up, but Fulham are going to be tested by a Liverpool team that have scored 8 goals in the last 4 away games played.
Before the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest, Fulham had lost consecutive games at Craven Cottage while conceding 7 goals, although they played their part from an attacking point of view.
5 of the last 6 Premier League games between Fulham and Liverpool have all ended with at least three goals shared out and there is every chance that these two teams can combine for something similar here.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Fulham 1-2 Liverpool
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88 with Cloudbet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Liverpool under manager Arne Slot this season are chalk-and-cheese different from Liverpool last season. They had an awful run in October and November this year losing 6 of 7 games, and a sacking looked likely.
Now, raw numbers say that Liverpool are better, but are they really a better side? Liverpool are 4-3-0 in their last seven EPL games but opponents have been Wolves, Leeds (twice!), Spurs, West Ham, Brighton and Sunderland. No opponent in the top 6 and four of them in the bottom five. An easy fixture list.
A check of home / away from has Fulham at 5-1-3 15:10 at Craven Cottage and Liverpool 4-1-4 15:16 when playing on the road.
My stats have Liverpool 30pts favourites (1021 v 1051) but some of that love comes from last seasons results where Liverpool finished the season rated a very high 1084 pt road side.
A check on previous ratings and final results shows this game as HW 35%, Dr 25%, AW 40%, so a Liverpool win IS the most likely result but the odds on Liverpool are poor.
If I can find 2.00 on a Fulham Double Chance (or AH +0.5 goals) then I'll take that +EV bet.
Now, raw numbers say that Liverpool are better, but are they really a better side? Liverpool are 4-3-0 in their last seven EPL games but opponents have been Wolves, Leeds (twice!), Spurs, West Ham, Brighton and Sunderland. No opponent in the top 6 and four of them in the bottom five. An easy fixture list.
A check of home / away from has Fulham at 5-1-3 15:10 at Craven Cottage and Liverpool 4-1-4 15:16 when playing on the road.
My stats have Liverpool 30pts favourites (1021 v 1051) but some of that love comes from last seasons results where Liverpool finished the season rated a very high 1084 pt road side.
A check on previous ratings and final results shows this game as HW 35%, Dr 25%, AW 40%, so a Liverpool win IS the most likely result but the odds on Liverpool are poor.
If I can find 2.00 on a Fulham Double Chance (or AH +0.5 goals) then I'll take that +EV bet.
