Spanish La Liga
2010-04-18 - Real Madrid vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Sunday 18th April 2010 - Kickoff 8pm UK
Match Analysis :
After last weekend disappointing 0-2 defeat against Barcelona, Real Madrid picked themselves up by winning in midweek. Not an impressive win against Almeria but 3 points in the bag was all Pellegrini needed following a poor display against Barcelona.
Despite scoring in midweek, Ronaldo still have plenty to prove as he waste many chances last week against Barcelona and expressed his feelings to the media that he is better than Messi. I am expecting Ronaldo to have a big game here today alongside with Higuain as Higuain was also largely disappointing last weekend.
Barcelona will be going into this game with Kaka, Raul, Drenthe, Metzelder and Pepe.
Valencia manager Unai Emery was pleased with the way his side bounced back in midweek after suffering a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Mallorca last weekend. David Silva got both the goals in Valencia's 2-0 win against Bilbao in midweek.
But Valencia will be without Miguel, Mathieu, Dealbert, Manuel Fernandes and David Navarro for this important game.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the AH this season, Real Madrid have covered 9 games from a possible 16 at home, drawing 1 and losing 6.
Interestingly, 4 of the 6 losses came in their last 4 home games when Real Madrid simply failed to cover the handicap on 3 occasions but winning their game.
On the other hand, Valencia have made a profit 7 out of their 16 games on the road this season, losing for punters in 9 games under the AH line.
However despite Valencia winning 7 games on the handicap line, 6 of the wins came in the opening half of the season and only one since the start of the year.
The Betting Verdict :
Real Madrid have what it takes to defeat Valencia. Valencia are poor on the road, losing 5 of their last 6 games. Without a single win in their last 6, my money is definitely not on Valencia causing an upset at the Santiago Bernabau. Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 6 games at home.
Real Madrid have an average of 3 goals a game at home this season while Valencia have only averaged slightly more than a goal at game on the road this season.
With Valencia not winning on the handicap since the first week of Janury, I’ll back Real Madrid to win and cover the head start. In addition, Valencia have got players sent off in each of their last 4 away games.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Real Madrid to win at approx. (1.50)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Real Madrid to cover the -1.25 head start.
However be prepared to lose half your bet if Real Madrid wins by the odd goal as they have been doing so lately.
However be prepared to lose half your bet if Real Madrid wins by the odd goal as they have been doing so lately.
