World Cup
2010-06-25 - Portugal vs Brazil
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group Phase
Venue : Moses Mabhida Stadium, Durban
Friday, 25th June 2010, Kickoff 16:00 Local/15:00 BST
With Brazil having won both games and Portugal on 4 points it appears that this could be an exhibition match because both teams are assured a place in the round of sixteen unless some extraordinary events can occur.
Brazil is guaranteed to progress it is just whether they win or draw and finish first or lose to Portugal and finish second.
Portugal will go through regardless except for one permutation. They need to lose and Ivory Coast needs to beat North Korea. That will tie Portugal and the Ivory Coast on 4 points and this is where goal difference will support the Portuguese.
With a goal difference of +7 compared to Ivory Coast’s -2, there needs to be a nine goal turn around between the two games which is most unlikely.
There has already been talk of Dunga playing a few of his reserve players in this one and it appears that he is still pretty confident as he should be with some very impressive reserves. I think there might be goals in this one after Portugal’s confidence boosting and Brazil’s impressive defeat of the African side.
Portugal
Portugal demolished North Korea 7-0 with 6 goals coming in the second half. To be honest there were quite a few easy misses committed by the Portuguese and it could have been closer to 10 or 12 nil. Portugal will feel confident of progressing but wouldn’t mind a decent showing against Brazil before stepping up to the plate and playing more serious opponents (could possibly be Spain).
The defence obviously kept a clean sheet but still might be a worry for Carlos Queiroz, particularly against teams that will punish mistakes and weakness better than North Korea who might feel unlucky not to have troubled the scorers on Monday. Bruno Alves and Ricardo Carvalho were the mainstays at centre back but it looks like their full-backs might be their most attacking weapons.
Miguel got the start on Monday at right back and he got forward a lot mainly in the first half and looked threatening when combining with Simao or Cristiano Ronaldo up the right flank. But the most impressive effort for mine went to left back Fabio Coentrao. His endeavour up the left side was impressive as was his delivery in the penalty area, which caused the Korean defenders a few hassles. He is young and following this World Cup I expect Benfica to have hard time in keeping him.
The centre of the midfield consisted of Pedro Mendes, Raul Meireles and Tiago with Simao and Ronaldo out wide. Four of these men scored goals on Monday but it will not be that easy again for some period of time. For Ronaldo it was his first international strike for 16 months and he seemed quite relieved when he got the last goal on 89 minutes.
Two players really stood out for me in the Portugal midfield. Simao out wide asserted his experience on the game and appeared far more controlled and involved than Danny did when he started against the Ivory Coast in the opener. I think there was a slight injury concern on Simao for the opener, but after his efforts in the North Korea game expect him to lead the way behind Ronaldo for a serious tilt at the World Cup for Portugal.
Raul Meireles is a quality player. His runs were all well timed and looked to be best afield at half time. His goal was well taken and ne may have had another one before half time following his persistence around the 18 yard box. There is no reason to change the midfield line up because Portugal need to find some consistency and Brazil is the best team to test themselves.
Leading the line against the North Koreans was Hugo Almeida. He scored perhaps the most attractive of Portugal’s goals on 56 minutes and to me he looked more useful than Liedson did in the first game. Perhaps it was because he found himself against weaker defenders but he seemed more imposing and his form at club level was pretty decent this season gone so I see no reason to change Almeida. He received plenty of support from Simao and Ronaldo and between these three they form a very dangerous tip of attack for the Portuguese.
We saw the game against North Korea where they looked like they could score every time they attacked in that second half. Admittedly the defence was awful, but the passing and movement off the ball was world class and they will be looking to establish this as a permanent feature of their game as they seek to break down tougher defences in coming games.
Brazil
The Brazilians were much improved against the Ivory Coast. While they struggled in their opener to a 2-1 win over North Korea, on Sunday Brazil looked a lot closer to the real deal. The ball movement was better but mainly because they were allowed more space. Unlike the Koreans who parked the bus, the Ivory Coast tried to play football and as a result got their just rewards. Brazil is officially through to the round of 16 and will have the luxury of resting some players which has been suggested in the media.
The defence may not be rested with it needing to be solid if they still want to win, and I don’t think they have the same depth in defence as they do in attacking areas of the pitch. Dani Alves may be the one defender who gets a start, but this may come further up the field as Maicon is currently looking extremely impressive at right back. The centre-backs Lucio and Juan look pretty solid but lost touch with Didier Drogba in the second half when a good pass found him unmarked in the box ready to head home a consolation goal.
Kaka is the big name star for Brazil and he will miss the match against Portugal after two yellows in the last game. His second yellow and subsequent send-off was a farce but it has happened and he’ll have a rest for about a week now. The likes of Kleberson and Ramires could get starts in the midfield to relieve Kaka, Felipe Melo or Gilberto Silva. But that is just an option suggested through the media and it really is testament to the depth of Brazil that they can call on such talent when they need it.
Up front Robinho and Luis Fabiano looked better than against North Korea, with Fabiano netting a brace. They too may be up for a rest with some pretty attractive striking options on the bench. Julio Baptista, Nilmar and Grafite can all play in attack and if the right changes are made we could be in for an attacking match. Brazil does play the beautiful games and these players are all one way thinkers, and if even three of them make the starting 11 we could be treated to a real exhibition even against Portugal.
The Betting Verdict
Realistically no team needs a result in this one. Portugal would love to win and top the group but Brazil will not be easy even with a few changes in the line-up.
Not an ideal game to bet in due to the nature of the circumstance but ... if you have to bet in this one go for a goals bet.
The Pick :
Expect a few goals ...
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the over 2.5 goals at best price available as a main betFor a side bet take both teams to score at the best price possible
