Tennis
2025-11-06 - Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: WTA Finals Group Stage
Thursday 6th November 2025 - Scheduled 5pm
2pm (British Time)
Preview
The first Group played out in pretty standard fashion with Elena Rybakina winning all three matches and the last match in the Group deciding who will move through to the Semi Final.
Things are a lot different in the second Group though and there are some permutations to work through to determine who will go through to the last four in the final Singles event of the season.
For Jessica Pegula, the only ambition on Thursday is going to be to win her match in straight sets as both Aryna Sablenka and Coco Gauff have managed to do against Jasmine Paolini. A strong win would be ideal to build up her set percentage win and games percentage win, which could still be a tiebreaker that will need to be used to determine the two players moving through.
Winning in three sets would mean Pegula is watching the other match in the Group and needing Coco Gauff to lose and so the World Number 5 has to be focused on her own match. Ultimately the key for Jessica Pegula is to win in straight sets and then hope there is either a straight sets winner in the other match in the Group or that Aryna Sabalenka wins in three sets.
These two players met back in September after the US Open had been completed and it was Jasmine Paolini who came through in straight sets at the Billy Jean King Cup. That was a win on the hard courts, but the Italian is clearly playing through an illness or an injury and that has seen her lose four of the five matches played at the WTA Finals in both Singles and Doubles tournaments.
This all means Jasmine Paolini has already been eliminated from both tournaments and her form in the two Singles losses suggests the long season has caught up with her. Having to deal with an illness or injury doesn't help and Jasmine Paolini may struggle to keep herself focused and motivated within this Group match.
The handicap mark has moved out another game compared with the one that Coco Gauff had to overcome in the middle of this Group, but Jessica Pegula can get the better of the line.
Perhaps the biggest concern for Pegula and the prospects of progressing is if Paolini withdraws before this match is played and that will impact how her game percentage and set percentage will look at the end of the Group Stage. With one player withdrawn already and with one of the two 'alternates' already out of action, it would mean Jessica Pegula is given the points but would only have a chance of moving into the Semi Final if Coco Gauff is beaten in the other match.
Prediction
Lay the games with the favourite as Jessica Pegula looks to put herself in the best position to Qualify for the Semi Final.
The Pick :
Jessica Pegula 2-0 Jasmine Paolini
