Tennis
2025-11-14 - Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Friday 14th November 2025 - Scheduled 2:30pm
1:30pm (British Time)
Preview
Two wins from two matches played means Jannik Sinner has topped this Group and this is a dead rubber for both the top Italian player and Ben Shelton, who has been eliminated after losing the second match in succession.
With that in mind, the organisers have scheduled the contest for the Day Session so Jannik Sinner is able to get plenty of rest before the Semi Final match to be played on Saturday. The chances are that he will be going on in the Evening Session in that Semi Final, especially if the match is against Carlos Alcaraz, and that should allow Jannik Sinner to invest plenty into this match.
He was far from his best in the win over Alexander Zverev, but was still able to come away with a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard. The big points were played really well, especially on his own serve, although Sinner's opponent is going to have some regret about not being able to put in enough aggressive intensity when it mattered the most.
You can be certain that Ben Shelton is not going to take a backwards step in this match, but he has not really been able to compete with Jannik Sinner in their recent meetings and bridging that gap with nothing on the line will be difficult.
Ben Shelton has a big serve, which is always going to make him dangerous and make spreads like this one feel very wide.
However, the American has not really been playing his best tennis since withdrawing at the US Open and Shelton has faced 12 Break Points in his two defeats here in Turin. The performance was better overall against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but Ben Shelton will be well aware that he is facing one of the top return players on the Tour and one who has regularly been able to find a way into his service games.
It was Ben Shelton who won the first ever meeting between these players in Shanghai back in October 2023, but Jannik Sinner has clearly taken offence to that and has won all seventeen sets played against the World Number 5 since then.
This includes winning in straight sets at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this season, while Jannik Sinner has broken in almost 1/4 return games played against Shelton on the hard courts.
Ben Shelton has thus been under immense pressure and that is only increased by the fact he has broken in 8% of return games played against Jannik Sinner on this surface.
He can come out with 'nothing to lose' but this has been a long season and the impending break may be something of a distraction for the lower Ranked player.
Jannik Sinner should still be locked in and he can clear this handicap mark much as he did when beating Shelton in straight sets at the Paris Masters at the end of October.
Prediction
Lay the games with the home hope, even though Jannik Sinner has already booked his place in a Semi Final against Alex De Minaur.
The Pick :
Jannik Sinner 2-0 Ben Shelton
