NCAA Basketball
2026-03-21 - Louisville Cardinals at Michigan State Spartans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NCAA Basketball Tournament Second Round
Saturday 21st March 2026 - Scheduled 2:45pm
6:45pm (British Time)
Preview
If both of these teams were at full health, this could have been one of those Second Round 'upsets' where the lower Seed overcomes the odds.
Unfortunately the Louisville Cardinals are trending towards being without Mikel Brown Jr for a second time in the NCAA Tournament. This may not have prevented them from beating the South Florida Bulls in the First Round, but the Michigan State Spartans are a genuine contender to win it all and are coming into this game behind a dominant opening win.
There is still some hope that Mikel Brown Jr is going to be able to suit up, but the player is pushing his chances more than the team and Louisville will not be entirely sure what they can expect from him, even if he was to be cleared.
Strong three point shooting helped the Cardinals beat the South Florida Bulls and there is still some real talent on the roster.
They will need to get those open shooters going again to try and give Michigan State something to think about, but the Spartans Defensive unit looks the best taking to the court in this Second Round game. There should be an opportunity to put together a stronger scheme to deal with a Louisville team without Mikel Brown Jr, although the Spartans are going to have be wary of the second chance points being produced by a Louisville team that were expecting to be a higher Seed.
Michigan State may be known for the strong Defensive performances they have produced all season, but this is an Offensive unit that is more than capable of out-scoring the Cardinals at their best.
They showed some of that ability in the crushing win over North Dakota State, although Michigan State will be well aware that this is a considerable step up in level.
The Cardinals did shut down the South Florida three point shooting in the First Round, and that could be a key to trying to keep this one competitive.
In reality it is going to be closely fought, but it just feels like the Spartans Defensive strength may begin to make a few more stops in the second half. That could eventually give Michigan State the opportunity to move clear of the opponent and the spread that has been set for this game.
Over a decade has passed since these teams last met during March Madness, but the most recent meeting was won by the Spartans in 2021. Things change very quickly in the College sports scene, but this Michigan State team may do just enough to win and cover in this big Second Round game.
Prediction
A game between these two teams would have been fitting for later in the NCAA Tournament and Louisville have the credentials to be a very dangerous team.
However, the potential absence of Mikel Brown Jr swings this in favour of the Michigan State Spartans and the higher Seed can cover as the narrow favourite.
The Pick :
Michigan State Spartans 83-76 Louisville Cardinals
