AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-03 - Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 20
Venue : MCG
3rd August, 7.50PM AEST
Overview :
Richmond Tigers are top of the ladder winning 4 of their last 5 games. They are in pole position to finish as minor champions with 1.5 wins ahead of West Coast Eagles due to a better goal differential. Richmond’s only loss in the last five games came against GWS.
Geelong on the other hand are 8th on the ladder, winning 3 of their last 5 games. The 3 wins came against Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane while the 2 losses were against Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows.
Richmond and Geelong are quite identical in their both their attacking and defensive part of the game. Richmond are one of the highest scoring teams in the competition averaging 14 goals a game and 13 behinds while Geelong are not far behind averaging 13 goals and 12.7 behinds. In defence, The Tigers are one of the best defensive sides in the competition conceding an average of 70 points with Geelong again not far off conceding 74 points.
In his past 11 games since round 9, Tom Hawkins has kicked 3++ goals in all but one game against Sydney in round 16. That’s a good statistic for any forward but to record back to back 7 goals against Lions and Melbourne in the past two weeks, makes Hawkins the man to stop. Stop Hawkins and Geelong may not score as freely as they have been in the past few weeks.
In contrast, Jack Riewoldt may not be grabbing that many headlines and attention as Hawkins, Riewoldt has sneaked under the radar in my view to due to the brilliance and improvement of his teammates. Jack has kicked just under 3 goals a game in his last 7 and his ability to bring the ball down or grab a mark out of nowhere draws defenders towards him and creates open space for the smaller Tiger forwards.
Scott Selwood is likely to play a tagging role against Martin – one that may come back to bite them as focusing too much on Martin will leave gaps around. The Tigers have progressed from last season and developed into a team that does not heavily rely on Martin alone. The other 21 players are prepared to work hard and share the ball.
Despite losing the battle to one of the competition best ruckman in Brodie Grundy last week, Toby Nankervis put in a solid performance against Grundy. Rhys Stanley may be in good form of his own, but Stanley is no Grundy and Nankervis should be able to win the battle in the ruck.
The Betting Verdict
Richmond are somewhat unbeatable at the MCG in their current form. Richmond have won 18 games on the bounce at the MCG dating back to round 13th last year against the Swans. Since then, the Tigers are unstoppable at the MCG blowing away teams week after week.
Some are hyping this clash as a potentially preliminary final or grand final preview and as good as the Cats have been last week in the win against Brisbane, I still have doubts in the Cats. They were fortunate to win against Melbourne two week ago to keep them in pole position to make finals football but lose this game against Tigers and another to the Hawks next week will see the Cats fall outside the top 8.
While I am not ruling out that the Cats will not play finals football just yet, I believe the Cats will drop this game against the Tigers and suddenly the game the Hawks next week will define their season.
Ablett have found some form lately and his display will be vital in Geelong hunt for finals football. I believe that Ablett return have somewhat had a role to play in a drop in Dangerfield’s influence in the game. Dangerfield’s disposals have dipped by almost 5 disposals a game and Dangerfield form seem to have dropped from his Brownlow winning year.
Selwood Brothers, Ablett and Dangerfield will try and outmuscle the tiger army but the I am uncertain how the Geelong players will react towards a highly intense pressure style football applied by the reigning champions. The Cats may hang on early on, but I expect the Tigers to pull away in the second half.
Richmond to win on the head to head seems to be the best value bet in my opinion. Geelong may push Richmond all the way but I cannot see the Cats pulling and upset here at the MCG
The Pick :
Richmond win by 18 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Richmond Tigers to win at $1.40 with Bet365
