Italian Serie A
2024-09-21 - Juventus vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Allianz Stadium, Torino, Piedmont, Italy (41,507)
Saturday, 21st September 2024, 18:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Juventus Team News
Juventus, seemingly, stopped playing when when Teun Koopmeiners was introduced into this side. It should have been a move that brought Juventus one level up, but somehow everything stalled.
It may just be coincidental or it may be that the players need to get accustomed to one another, especially as Nico Gonzalez is bringing his own unique style of football to the table as well as Koopmeiners. Or it could simply be that Vlahovic is not a clinical finisher - he only occasionally looks like one.
In any case, Juventus is still work in progress. People expected this team to become very dangerous immediately, but it might take a bit more time. Juventus has already lost four points this season but so did Inter, so not all is lost. Juventus can still be a title candidate if they fix their problems, but they need to do it quick.
Napoli Team News
Napoli seems to be back. All it took is a coach who knows how to make the players run for one another, and it all clicked. This is now a powerful team, at least that's what the results and the eye test are showing. This will be a major test for what Napoli can and can not do.
We say they can do a lot. Antonio Conte has a way of magically transforming teams into winning machines - until they run out of steam later in the season because of the physical work demanded of them - and Romelu Lukaku is a one-man offense that can solve any team's offensive woes. These two ingredients were, apparently, all that Napoli needed to get back on track.
Probable Lineups
Juventus (4-2-3-1): Di Gregorio - Kalulu, Bremer, Gatti, Cambiaso - McKennie, Locatelli - Nico Gonzalez, Koopmeiners, Yildiz - Vlahovic. Coach Motta.
Napoli (3-4-2-1): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno - Mazzochi, Anguissa, Lobotka, Spinazzola - Politano, Kvaratskhelia - Lukaku. Coach Conte.
No changes in either team, Juventus is still without Thuram and that's a significant absentee for them.
The Betting Market
Juventus is a slight favourite although everyone knows Juventus can only win this one if they keep a clean sheet. Might as well bet on Juventus to win to nil at 3.50 if you believe that.
The bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game as all derbies Juventus plays usually have zero or one goal. Even against offensive teams such as Napoli. The price on Under 2.5 Goals is 1.66 - a common theme in this round! - while the Over is priced at 2.25. It's definitely something that should be exploited, and that we exploited on Friday already.
The Betting Verdict
Our job isn't easy here, to say the least. Juventus has been stuttering under Thiago Motta, same as last year under a different coach, and it seems the issue of non-creativity on the pitch can't be solved by simple movement. It can, but only if the opponent walks right into that trap.
Juventus keeps derbies low-scoring. Lately, that means 0-0. But, we suspect, that won't be the case here. Napoli is flying and will want a statement win against a somewhat boring Juventus side. This will lead to Napoli finding the goal, yet on the other end they probably won't be able to keep fluent Juventus at bay.
We see Napoli as the more likely team to win here. The momentum is definitely on their side, and Conte was the Juventus coach for a long time so he knows their strengths and weaknesses. Motta is great, but he still has a lot to learn about what other teams bring to the table.
Both Teams To Score: YES is a solid bet here, but Asian handicap 0 on Napoli is even better. We're basically betting on Napoli to win this one against all odds, with a safety net that gets us our stake back in case of a draw.
Don't forget to watch the match on Bet365 live streaming. You just need a funded account.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 1-2 Napoli
