Italian Serie A
2025-10-04 - Parma vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (22,352)
Saturday, 04 October 2025, 15:00 CET
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Parma Team News
We expected Parma and Torino to play 0-0 - who wouldn't - but they felt a sudden need to entertain the fans with 28 shots combined and three goals scored. Parma took the lead through a penalty kick, Torino equalized early in the second half, and then Parma won through sheer willpower. And there you go, three goals.
Parma is still not an offensive team, and not a good team either. In most situations, the best they can do is simply defend and wait for a counter attack. They don't attack with intensity or pace, so they usually require a lot of effort before the ball finds the net. In four matches prior to the Torino game, they scored once.
Lecce Team News
If Parma being involved in high-scoring matches wasn't enough, how about Lecce scoring twice and being involved in a 2-2? Lecce took an early lead, Bologna equalized from a spot kick in the first half, then scored a winner in the 71st minute - at least everyone thought as much - before Lecce scored for 2-2 in the 94th minute.
In addition, Lecce's previous three outings in all competitions also saw three goals or more. In two of them, the opponent singlehandedly took the game over as Atalanta scored 4 and Milan scored 3 in the cup.
Lecce is still a very defensive side, but in football you don't necessarily need to be Barcelona to score a goal. Sometimes all you need is a good header, a long shot, a penalty kick, or one thing that's very common in Italy - casual defending by the opponent.
Probable Lineups
Parma (3-5-2): Suzuki - Delprato, Circati, Ndiaye - Lovik, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Pecchia.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Stulic, Sottil. Coach Di Francesco.
The Betting Market
The bookmakers didn't take the bait and they still don't consider Parma an offensive team after that three-goal thriller, so the price on Under 2.5 Goals is again 1.67, same as it was against Torino.
This time around, the Both Teams To Score: NO price is the one that's changed, they reduced it from 1.91 to 1.75, indicating that this particular outcome is now really probable. The price on YES is 2.00.
If you think Parma is a confident home side that wins relegation six-pointers regularly you'll take the price of 1.85 on home win, though we'd advise against it. This will be a topsy-turvy game.
The Betting Verdict
It's as if these relegation candidates agree to open up when they meet an opponent of similar quality. They go forward because they deem the opponent harmless, which in turn leaves a lot of space for both offensive lines. In other words, Parma doesn't feel the need to play too defensively against Lecce, and Lecce doesn't feel the need to play too defensively against Parma. It's not Juventus, is it? Nothing to fear.
In the end, what happens is a high-scoring game. If this theory is correct then we'll have a very profitable Serie A betting season.
The last three meetings between Lecce and Parma had at least four goals. Lecce won here 1-3 last season and that game featured everything: a disallowed goal, a penalty kick, and a 90+ minute goal. Same as Lecce's last outing against Bologna, actually.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Parma 2-1 Lecce
