Italian Serie A
2025-11-02 - Fiorentina vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 10
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Sunday, 02 November 2025, 15:00 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
As expected, after the visit to Inter Milan the Viola are still without a win and we're entering the 10th Serie A round. Not this would surely be a golden opportunity?
This side is seemingly only able to play against the softer opponents. In other words, Fiorentina's game will either go very well for them, or it's a mountain they're unable to climb. This is not a side that can beat a stronger opponent. This is a side that can beat Sigma Olomouc and Rapid Wien.
We could make a case for Fiorentina and say that the schedule has been brutal. They haven't yet met a relegation candidate at home, but instead played Cagliari and Pisa on the road. In nine rounds so far they've already played four big teams (Napoli, Roma, Milan, Inter) in a situation where they're simply trying to pull their act together. They most certainly were unable to do so against these sides.
This is the first time this season that Fiorentina is a significant favourite at home.
Lecce Team News
Other than the visiting win at Parma 0-1 and a notable 2-2 home comeback draw against Bologna that had everyone fooled into thinking this is an offensive side, Lecce has done barely anything at all. They lost to all the big sides they've faced without even putting up a fight, and also lost to Cagliari and Udinese in BTTS thrillers.
But more than anything, this is a losing team. They can twitch when they're nearly dead and score a goal or two, but that's as far as it goes. They're above the relegation line because of that win against Parma, but it will be a long wait before another victim comes along.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Fortini - Gudmunssson, Kean. Coach Pioli.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Maleh - Pierotti, Stulic, Banda. Coach Di Francesco.
It seems Fiorentina will run out in a two-striker formation, looking for a win. Although Lecce's formation looks offensive on paper, it's actually a counter-attacking 4-5-1.
The Betting Market
Fiorentina is priced at 1.62, which is a major sign from the bookmakers that this is a winnable fixture after offering us prices of 2.80 against Bologna and 2.63 against Como. So, they don't see Fiorentina as a side that can be favoured at home even against mid-table teams, yet the price is what it is here against Lecce.
Under 2.5 Goals is by far the more likely outcome at 1.67, so the bookmakers say, but we'd rather take a punt on the Over at 2.20. Lecce has proven that they can score more freely than in recent years. Prices for BTTS are the same, 1.67 for NO.
The Betting Verdict
Lecce has proven to be a tricky opponent for Fiorentina in recent meetings despite the Viola winning two out of last three fixtures in Florence. But then again, Fiorentina is so unstable that probably everybody is seeing success to them when you look at the H2H.
All things considered, we think that Fiorentina will find a way to win this. They must. They are usually strong on their home stadium and are usually managing to get the points even when the opponent is much stronger than Lecce. We're betting on a trend reversal here. Here goes a 1.62 hail Mary.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 2-1 Lecce
