Italian Serie A
2025-11-03 - Lazio vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 10
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Monday, 03 November 2025, 20:45 CET
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Lazio Team News
Betting on Lazio is an exercise in futility. They'll find their victim here and there, and then you think this will translate into the next match they play. It will not. Lazio won 1-0 against Juventus and then proceeded to play 0-0 at Pisa.
Now the trend seems to be that Lazio plays really low-scoring games, but this likely won't keep up either, it's just a false assumption based on recent final scores. They should have conceded one or two goals against both Atalanta and Juventus, and even Pisa posted an xG of 0.91, compared to Lazio's poor 0.48 from 11 shots.
This is a porous side that keeps finding ways to prevent the ball from going in. If it keeps up it's a quality, but xG usually doesn't lie, and Lazio's defence has way overperformed so far.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari just got hurt by Sassuolo, as many teams in Serie A were already this season, and lost the home game 1-2 without even giving themselves enough chances to score. Cagliari's offensive highlights from this game are reduced to that one goal that they scored.
It's important to note that the first half of this game was completely uneventful - and that's the way Cagliari likes it - and it only springed into life after the first goal was scored. And then there were three. This is a common theme of Cagliari's games, they're happy with the 0-0 but when you wound them with a goal they instantly start seeking revenge with all their might.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Basic, Cataldi - Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Ze Pedro, Idrissi - Adopo, Prati, Folorunsho - S.Esposito, Gaetano - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
The Betting Market
Lazio is, of course, the favourite, but we'd be crazy to take the 1.53 on such a poor side. More likely than not, Lazio will draw when you expect them to win. And win when you don't expect them to, for that matter. In other words, this is a completely unreliable side.
Opposite to them is a side that knows how to sting when they concede a goal, and there's value to be found in the Both Teams To Score market, more precisely the YES option for 1.95. The Over/Under market is evenly split.
The Betting Verdict
This is a difficult match to call, and we'd certainly advise against the lure of the 1.53 on a home favourite with a big name. Cagliari won't go down that easy. There's one bet that stands out here and that's the Under. Lazio is apparently playing low-scoring games lately as they refuse to concede and on the other hand can't score.
In the worst-case scenario, this game goes to 1-1 if both sides break through, and then there's a remote chance of Lazio scoring the second goal. We're looking at a firm Under here, with 0-0 in the first half.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 1-1 Cagliari
