Italian Serie A
2025-12-20 - Lazio vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 16
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Saturday, 20 December 2025, 18:00 CET
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Lazio Team News
Lazio did an incredible thing and won us our bet while having two players red carded at Parma. They still managed to find the winning goal near the final whistle -- kudos for that, Laziali, our ROI thanks you.
This comes a week after a difficult home fixture against Bologna that saw rapid two goals in the first half and then nothing else afterwards. Before that, Lazio won 1-0 at home in the cup against AC Milan's mixed squad after losing to them with the same result in Milano in the league.
Lazio's matches are all difficult. Due to Maurizio Sarri's managerial ability they usually find a way to edge these matches, but it's still the same every week - it's always a struggle.
What's important to note is that this 8th-placed team never falls apart, never scores a lot, and never plays high-scoring matches. Their ideal is a 1-0 win, against any opponent.
Cremonese Team News
The thing with Cremonese is that so many top teams make the same mistake while playing against them -- they play too offensively when they see Cremonese defends deep. This is what plays right into the hands of the enemy, as Cremonese will appear harmless for the most part and then launch a deadly counter attack. This seems to result in a lot of high-scoring matches as both teams end up scoring at least once.
This isn't the case when Cremonese plays a more cautious, defensive, or offensively inept side. This is when it's difficult to score against Cremonese and, on the other hand, Cremonese itself doesn't have that much open space.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Cataldi, Vecino - Cancellieri, Castellanos, Noslin. Coach Sarri.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Barbieri, Grassi, Bondo, Vandeputte, Pezzella - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Nicola.
Lazio has a lot of absences in midfield and offense while the defensive line is untouched. Basic and Zaccagni are suspended, Rovella and Isaksen are injured, and Dia and Dele-Bashiru are on AFCON.
The Betting Market
Lazio at 1.65 is fool's gold as this side has been ineffective in offense for a while now. Lazio can get 1 goal at most. What happens if Cremonese scores? That's right -- no gold for you.
That being said, Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.00. This is a riskly bet too as an underish game is expected, with an Under 2.5 Goals price of 1.72.
The Betting Verdict
Lazio is closer to winning this, though it's a rare thing for a top Italian side to win against Cremonese. You usually need a lot of firepower, which Lazio does not have. Juventus, Roma and Inter all won against Cremonese while conceding once, and scoring 2, 3 and 4 goals respectively. Lazio isn't capable of that.
Instead, we are fairly certain that these two sides will keep each other in check for a long time. Lazio won't be able to penetrate Cremonese's able-bodied defence, while on the other hand Sarri is far too cunning to let Cremonese run loose in this defensive third. This will be a low-scoring game, and there's a lot of value in the 1.72 on the Under. When the Under in Serie A is obvious, we usually get something sub-1.60.
If you want bankers, Under 1.5 Goals in the First Half looks like the banker in this fixture. Not because of Lazio - they score and concede an equal number of goals in both halves. But it's Cremonese that only opens up in the second half. In 1H they're at 7:8 while in 2H they're at 11:10.
The Pick :
Lazio 1-1 Cremonese
