Italian Serie A
2024-11-10 - Inter Milan vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 10 November 2024, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Inter Team News
Inter made it way back to near the top of the table following some poor results earlier in the season, now they're #2 and there's one more job left to do - defeat Napoli here and you also leapfrog them to make it to the summit of Serie A.
Inter just took care of Arsenal in the Champions League with a 1-0 win, and would be on a nine-game winning run in all competitions were it not for the miraculous Juventus comeback from 4-2 in that 4-4 game.
Napoli Team News
Napoli got destroyed at home by Atalanta 0-3, an awful result and an awful performance to go with it. Napoli only created a few decent chances as Atalanta's defence was where defence should be, but on the other end Napoli was wide open.
It could have possibly been a case of being too ambitious against a side that you think you're better than, and that punished you. A very sobering result for a side that thought it's chasing the scudetto.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni - Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco - Thuram, Lautaro. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Napoli (4-3-3): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Olivera - Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay - Politano, Lukaku, Kvaratskhelia. Coach Conte.
Thuram and Lautaro lead the line again. There's no way they're not jaded by now, even if Inzaghi is coming up with creative ways to sub them out around the hour mark without having proper replacements on the bench.
Lobotka returns for Napoli at just the right time.
The Betting Market
Inter is a really big favourite at 1.75, which means the bookmakers think Inter is above absolutely everyone else in this league, even in derbies. They've shown as much in the last season or two.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.80, so it's the favoured option, as the price on Under is 1.90. Supposedly, the bookmakers are very much influenced by the eight-goal thriller Inter played against Juventus.
The Betting Verdict
Matches of big teams in general, and meetings of big teams, usually don't provide us with some obvious betting value. This isn't true here. The bookmakers are wrong to see this as a high-scoring affair as both Inter and Napoli have shown the propensity towards 1-0 scorelines this season.
Inter just saw the tight approach work like a charm against Arsenal, as they won 1-0, and they will most certainly not change a thing and will want to perform in the exact same manner here against Napoli.
Napoli won't mind - this side tightens up in big matches. And let's not forget that Antonio Conte of Juventus fame is the coach.
Only three of the last thirteen meetings ended up having three goals or more. It is beyond us why the bookmakers thing the current state of Inter and Napoli is ripe for reversing this trend. It's not.
Sure, the match might end 4-4 if every long shot goes in. But this is still most likely to look like a one-goal game with few clear chances.
The Pick :
Inter 1-0 Napoli
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Under 2.5 Goals at 1.90 at Bet365
