Italian Serie A
2025-10-26 - Fiorentina vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 8
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Sunday, 26 October 2025, 18:00 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina is in the relegation zone without a win yet. Although it must be said the schedule has been extremely unfavourable as they faced three top sides plus nasty Como, Fiorentina failed to beat Cagliari, Pisa and Torino on the road.
This side is having problems in all areas of the game of football, from offense to defence, but most importantly they are unable to control a game when they score first. Interestingly, they often manage to score first, it's just that the game then quickly falls apart for them as soon as the other team goes forward.
Bologna Team News
Bologna would be the complete opposite to Fiorentina. This is a side that never falls apart, and always seems to at least have a fighting chance. They only lost twice in Serie A so far, both times on their travels to top sides as they lost 1-0 to Milan and Roma. This is something they haven't figured out yet. But in other games they're doing more than fine, and are currently in a streak of three straight wins in all competitions. They won 1-2 at Steaua in midweek.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (3-4-2-1): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Gosens - Gudmunssson, Fazzini - Kean. Coach Pioli.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski - Holm, Lucumi, Heggem, Lykogiannis - Ferguson, Freuler - Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi - Castro. Coach Italiano.
The Betting Market
Fiorentina's win is priced at 2.70, just a bit less than the opposite outcome as the price on Bologna is 2.75. Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome at 1.66 but you can get 2.20 if you think the game will go over. Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.95 and that's a solid bet right there. Fiorentina can't keep a clean sheet against anyone.
The Betting Verdict
As poor as Fiorentina is, one thing they do well is scoring first. The other side then proceeds to score three which is a bit of a problem, but on base settings - when neither side yet is chasing the score - Fiorentina is doing well.
We discoverd there's actually quite a bit of value to be found in the Team To Score First market as you can get 2.00 on Fiorentina and 2.05 on Bologna, if you want to place a bet on this coin flip.
Fiorentina plays at home, Fiorentina plays offensively, and they get exposed only after they score first. That's why we think it's a solid bet to back the hosts to score the first goal in this game, despite all the problems.
If you dislike this particular bet, then go for BTTS-Yes for almost the same price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 1-1 Bologna
