English Premier
2025-10-26 - Aston Villa vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 26th October 2025 - Kick Off 2pm
This game is live on TV
Aston Villa
There does feel like a greater challenge for English Premier League clubs to play in the Europa League/Conference League on Thursday and then the early slot on Sunday, especially for those travelling back from the continent. It is the situation for Aston Villa this weekend after a disappointing defeat at Go Ahead Eagles in the Europa League, and Unai Emery will be looking for his improving squad to bounce back immediately.
The start to the season was as poor as Aston Villa could have expected, but they have moved back up to 11th in the Premier League table and 12 points on the board means they are still in touch with the European positions. The Villans have a 2-1-1 record at home in the Premier League where they have scored and conceded 5 goals.
Aston Villa came from behind to beat Tottenham Hotspur last weekend and that made it 5 straight wins in all competitions, although the run was ended on Thursday night in the Netherlands. They were thumped 0-3 here by Crystal Palace at the end of August, but Aston Villa have won 3 in a row at Villa Park, including each of the last 2 Premier League games played here.
Lucas Digne is a doubt and Youri Tielemens is not quite ready to return.
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola is clearly very keen to avoid having to go through the extra Knock Out Round in the Champions League for a second season in a row and Manchester City's 0-2 win at Villarreal puts them on track in that competition. Domestic focus has really been on Arsenal and Liverpool, the top two from last season, but Manchester City are reminding everyone that they had won the English title four times in a row prior to a disappointing last season.
In quiet fashion Manchester City have moved into 2nd place in the Premier League table and just 3 points behind leaders Arsenal, but they will not want to lose more ground over the next two weeks with some tough fixtures coming up. The side have a 2-1-1 away record and Manchester City have scored 7 goals and conceded 3 in those matches.
Manchester City have extended their unbeaten run to 9 games in all competitions and the win in Spain on Tuesday means they have secured 7 victories in that time. After conceding very late on in a 2-1 loss at Brighton at the end of August, Manchester City are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions and have won 3 of those games.
Pep Guardiola has stated that the squad that was available for the trip to Villarreal is going to be involved this weekend. Players like Nico Gonzalez and Rodri remain out of action.
Head to Head
Both Premier League games between Aston Villa and Manchester City ended in 2-1 wins for the home team last season.
Aston Villa are unbeaten in 3 at home against Manchester City and have beaten them twice in a row at Villa Park.
Prediction
Both teams were playing away from home in Europe this week, but Manchester City have had two extra days to recover and that could be a key factor in this fixture at Villa Park on Sunday.
After slow starts, Aston Villa and Manchester City have found some form and momentum, although that is also an area where the away team could have an edge after Aston Villa's loss at Go Ahead Eagles on Thursday.
However, Villa Park has been a really tough place for teams to visit over the last couple of years and Manchester City can speak about that from first-hand experience having lost twice in a row here. It certainly makes the odds on quotes for an away win look very short, especially as Aston Villa have won 3 in a row at Villa Park, and the focus is instead on the goals market.
Aston Villa are still struggling for consistency in the final third, but they have shown a bit more of a defensive shape since the crushing 0-3 defeat to Crystal Palace at the end of August. They have played 9 games in all competitions since that home defeat and Aston Villa have conceded 7 goals, while the underlying numbers have been very solid and even more so when solely concentrating on fixtures played at Villa Park.
With Erling Haaland up front, it is perhaps easy to imagine all Manchester City games to feature a lot of goals, but Pep Guardiola is adjusting his mentality in games. This is a manager that wanted his team to play on the front foot, but the experiences from last season suggested something had to change and Manchester City are not as gung-ho as they were.
The big Norwegian striker is making hay with the team perhaps more built to play to his strengths, but it should be noted that the clean sheets are piling up and that looks to be a definite shift in mentality to ensure Manchester City do not need three or four goals to win games.
This is something that looks really clear in away games- 4 of the last 5 Manchester City away games have finished with less than three goals shared out, while they have not scored more than two goals in any of the last 6 on their travels. Clean sheets at Brentford and Villarreal have been key to the Manchester City successes and games against Aston Villa are usually competitive affairs.
In fact both were trending towards finishing with less than three goals shared out last season, but injury time goals in both games ended up hitting what were odds on quotes.
It is odds on for at least three goals to be shared out this weekend, but both teams look like they are focusing on being a bit more defensively minded and the under is a big looking price all things considered.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-1 Manchester City
