Italian Serie A
2024-12-23 - Inter Milan vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Monday, 23 December 2024, 20:45 CET
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Inter Team News
Inter just made a statement win by thrashing Lazio 0-6, and this side is practically at the top of the table. The only reason why they're not is that they have one less game than everyone else, the one against Fiorentina that was abandoned. If both Atalanta and Inter win their respective matches than they're on 40 points - if we'd give Inter 3 points for their postponed game - and are topping the league table ahead of Napoli who's on 38. Inter has a better goal difference than Atalanta.
Long story short, if Inter wins this one they're effectively at the top of the table if they also win the postponed game. Anything but a win would hurt their title chances, they got no points to spare.
Como Team News
Como just delivered a stunning shotout victory against Roma, 2-0, where they limited Roma to six harmless shots on goal, only one of them on target. This was the first win for Como in last ten Serie A rounds. It seems that, in certain scenarios, Como can do well. We're just not sure what those scenarios are.
Until the 93rd minute, the result there was 0-0 and Roma had two half-chances while Como had several dangerous long shots. Then, Como scored from their only real chance, and then added another one from a counter attack where three Como players were alone with the goalkeeper.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni - Dumfries, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco - Thuram, Lautaro. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Como (4-2-3-1): Audero - Van der Brempt, Goldaniga, Kempf, Sala - Sergi Roberto, Da Cunha - Strefezza, Paz, Fadera - Belotti. Coach Fabregas.
The Betting Market
This is a very difficult market as Inter's win is priced at 1.18 and we don't fare much better with the Over 2.5 Goals either as that one is 1.36. There's no way to win here - unless you think both teams will score (or not) for 1.90. That's the market to target, toss a coin.
The Betting Verdict
These are the worst matches to predict, when one side is favoured by a large margin, because then you're left with a decision if they'll win by a handicap or not.
Judging by how Inter has been performing lately, they'll cover the -1.5 handicap here. But that's only priced at 1.675 so again no luck if you're seeking value. The -2.5 handicap, on the other hand, is priced at 2.675 and that's a bet that can be ruined by a consolation goal.
So we'll take the middle ground and go for Inter to score three. They might. The price is good enough, 2.00, so we can win a full unit here on what is basically a 1.25 game.
We still remember how Como and their defensive line looked like in a visit to Juventus, where a side that isn't really an offensive juggernaut scored three goals in a clean 3-0 routine win. If Como didn't learn any new defensive skills since then, and it seems like they haven't as they just conceded two when they visited Venezia, Inter will thrash them. They won't have the luxury here of only allowing two half-chances in the entire game, that Roma afforded them.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter 3-0 Como
