Italian Serie A
2025-09-27 - Como vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Lombardy, Italy (13,602)
Saturday, 27 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Como Team News
Some things are clear by now - Como is a mid-table team that aspires to do more, it will take time to do more, and when something good happens to them it's always because of 21-year-old star midfielder Nico Paz.
The 3-0 win against Sassuolo in the cup three days ago here on this stadium was a welcome sign that Como can beat a weaker opponent, because this is the department in which Como was lacking. They won against Lazio and against Fiorentina, but failed to do so against Genoa at home, and their only defeat was to Bologna.
Unsurprisingly, this short-passing Spanish style team had 71% possession against Sassuolo, after having 61% in Florence against Fiorentina. It will take time for Como to learn to control football matches, but for now, having possession and having Nico Paz works as intended.
Como rested key players, Paz included, against Sassuolo. Some other players stepped up so now this is an even better side as more players can be relied on to make things happen. 19-year-old midfielder Jesus Rodriguez scored a brace.
Cremonese Team News
Cremonese had us fooled. Not with the win in the opening round against Milan on San Siro - it was always clear this was an accident - but with the 3-2 at home against Sassuolo. We expected something similar against Verona and Parma but alas, both of these matches ended 0-0 with Cremonese barely limiting damage. The combined xG for Cremonese in these two matches was 0.37. Meaning, they didn't even get a good sniff of the goal.
Sassuolo is obviously a very troubled side, as they conceded 3 goals to both Cremonese and Como recently, and a side that is finding it difficult to adapt to the demands of Serie A. So let's say anyone can score against Sassuolo. The only other thing that Cremonese did were the two incredible goals against Milan. But you can't count on spirited scissor kicks to score goals in football. That happens once per season.
The normal level of Cremonese's offense was seen against Verona and Parma, it seems. In the cup at home against Palermo too. A month ago, Cremonese posted six off-target shots that combined for xG of 0.35. The match ended 0-0, and Cremonese dropped out on penalties.
Probable Lineups
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Vojvoda, Ramon, Carlos, Valle - Perrone, Da Cunha - Kuhn, Paz, Rodriguez - Morata. Coach Fabregas.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Payero, Grassi, Vandeputte, Pezzella - Sanabria, Vazquez. Coach Nicola.
The Betting Market
The price on Como is only 1.44, and it is indeed a banker but in this league you don't bet on such prices. 1.44 is what you usually get on Inter v Torino, Serie A rarely goes lower than this due to the sheer unpredictability caused by lazy defending. You'd better just leave it.
The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is split down the middle, with the Over being slightly more likely. On the other hand, the bookmakers didn't really dare to put a low price on Both Teams To Score: NO, it's 1.70.
So what's the message here? Como will win but we actually think Cremonese has a good chance to score, and the game is likely to go over. That's 2-1.
The Betting Verdict
We beg to differ. Como, with their short-passing all day long, is hiding the ball from the opponent. Cremonese will be reduced to a few counter attacks here, and will have 35% possession at most. Same as against Milan. They had 4 shots total in that game, xG 0.20, three shots on target, two goals.
Meaning, the price is 1.70 that a visiting side with 35% possession and three or four shots on goal that result in a total xG of around 0.20 won't find the net. 1.70 implies a probability of around 41%.
We'll take the BTTS-No bet. Cremonese won't score.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Como 2-0 Cremonese
