Italian Serie A
2025-10-18 - Lecce vs Sassuolo
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Saturday, 18 October 2025, 15:00 CET
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Lecce Team News
Lecce did the unthinkable and played a high-scoring draw at home against Bologna in their previous home game, which is strange because Lecce avoided defeat and because Lecce got involved in a game with lots of goals.
We can expect something similar from Lecce whenever they're at home and are playing a team that isn't in the big six. If they feel they can go forward and not get punished for it, in front of their own fans they surely will open up a bit.
Although Lecce reminded us all about their tendencies to play low-scoring games with that 0-1 visiting win against Parma, this was actually only the second case this seasone that a Serie A team hasn't scored at least two goals against Lecce. We can simply write it off as a strange result, as Parma played a really poor game and failed to create more than three or four half-chances against this otherwise porous defence.
Sassuolo Team News
Sassuolo is a cunning little side that found its groove. If you watched their wins against Udinese and Verona you'd see a team that isn't dominating the game and that seems to be on the back foot, on the brink of conceding and ultimately losing. Yet when they go forward, their simplistic offensive style - poke the ball towards the goal if you can - gives no time to the opposing defence to react.
In other words, Sassuolo plays direct offensive football in the final third, looking for simple solutions, aware that it will work some of the time. Then, when it does, they will fall back and calm the game down.
And that is, ladies and gentlemen, how an underdog wins a football game. Sassuolo won't dominate against anyone in this league but their playing style makes them dangerous - when it works as intended.
So far this season, it worked three times out of six, which includes defeats to Napoli and Inter, as well as a win against Lazio, so it's wasn't the easiest of schedules either.
Note that you can't ever count on Sassuolo to win, you can only count on them playing this same style and being a nasty little underdog that not only draws games but that can win, even on the road, as if it's the easiest thing in the world. When it works as intended.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Kouassi, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel - Ndaba, Coulibaly, Ramadani, Sala, Pierotti - Stulic, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
Sassuolo (4-3-3): Muric - Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, Doig - Vrancx, Matic, Kone - Berardi, Pinamonti, Lauriente. Coach Grosso.
The Betting Market
It's a bit strange to see Sassuolo favoured in an away game as relegation six-pointers should always lean slightly towards the home win. Yet the price on Lecce is 2.90 while Sassuolo is priced at 2.50, indicating that the bookmakers see Sassuolo as a much better team. We agree to a certain extent, Sassuolo indeed has a chance to win, but we'd never put a favourite tag on them.
A low-scoring game is expected as Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67, with a 2.20 for the Over. There's a lot of value in that 2.20, same as in the 1.95 for Both Teams To Score: YES.
The Betting Verdict
Sassuolo to score is a given, as no defence in Italy can be concentrated enough to counter this direct playing style for 90+ minutes. Sooner or later, Sassuolo will poke the ball in before you even see it.
On the other end, Lecce has been playing on the front foot for a while now, and they aren't bad in the final third either. As incredible as that may seem. They scored in four consecutive Serie A matches now and we think the streak will keep going here.
We expect a fun game to watch, in which two poor teams will have a go at one another, and this will likely result in both teams scoring.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 1-2 Sassuolo
