Italian Serie A

2025-10-19 - AC Milan vs Fiorentina

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

AC Milan v Fiorentina
Italy Serie A - Round 7
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 19 October 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.

Milan Team News

It just so happens that business partners of your favourite sports writer are one of AC Milan sponsors, so they agreed to send him an official Modric #14 jersey - and the XL fits like a glove. This is crucial info that needed sharing.

Now that we got the important stuff out of the way, this seems like a good time to make a mini-review of Milan's season so far. It has most certainly exceeded everyone's expectations, and if Pulisic scored that penalty kick against Juventus this side would have five straight wins and would be tied with Napoli and Roma at 15 points.

Most importantly, Milan looks stable now, like a side that knows what it wants and how to get it. Problems in the offensive third will persist as Milan doesn't have a natural goalscorer, so Pulisic had to step up with four goals already. Leao hasn't added anything yet as he's just returning from injury, and Santi Gimenez has yet to score despite being involved in several one-on-ones in six rounds so far.

The situation with injuries isn't very good at the moment, so a lot will depend on how Rafael Leao will look like on the pitch.

Fiorentina Team News

Fiorentina is still winless. At home they at least score, as was the case in their three home defeats so far: Napoli 1-3, Como 1-2, Roma 1-2, while on the road they usually can't score but at least they got three points as all the matches (Cagliari, Torino, Pisa) ended in a draw. Winning.

We expected Fiorentina to perform worse than last season, but this is abysmal. The once shaky team is now a poor one through and through, as despite having good names on the pitch nothing seems to work anymore. Things should have been better with Pioli at the helm, but this team is so deprived of a good game plan. It's either that, or whatever the game plan is, the players are unable to execute it.

Probable Lineups

Milan (3-5-1-1): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Loftus-Cheek - Leao. Coach Allegri.

Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Gosens - Piccoli, Fazzini. Coach Pioli.

Rabiot got injured so the support cast for #14 will change and Ricci will get a chance to finally impress. Pulisic will also be out for a few weeks, same as Rabiot and Jashari. Saelemaekers is also probably out. These are important absences, but Leao finally returns.

Fiorentina could be in even more trouble as their main forward Moise Kean is questionable. They got Gudmundsson and Dzeko on the bench so it should all work like a charm, if their offense worked at all, which it does not.

The Betting Market

The price on Milan is currently 1.53 at time of writing, on Saturday, but it dropped from 1.67, which basically means that everyone is betting their house on Milan here.

Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score markets are both split down the middle, with the only slightly favoured outcome being BTTS-No as the bookmakers don't expect Fiorentina to score. Under 2.5 Goals for 1.93 seems the best bet of this bunch.

The Betting Verdict

Luka Modric will walk Fiorentina off a cliff, and there is no way for the visitors to prevent it. Milan will likely climb to the second spot on the table after this round, and there's a chance they might even go to the top if Napoli fails to beat Torino on the road.

Then only bad thing about the certainty of Milan's win here is that the price is only 1.53, yet that's our official bet as Milan To Win will be the bet of the 2025/26 Serie A season. Whereas we have to find different betting angles in other teams' matches and bet on goals, as wins can't really be predicted in this league, with Modric at the helm that's the one thing that can be predicted.