Italian Serie A
2025-10-19 - Cagliari vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Sunday, 19 October 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cagliari Team News
Cagliari had exactly one winnable game at home so far, against Parma, and won it cleanly 2-0. The others were against Fiorentina (1-1) and Inter (0-2) so in hindsight Cagliari looks very predictable. Win when favoured, lose against a big side, draw against an average side.
Cagliari prefers to take things slow when they play at home, and be cautious at first, but then the game opens up in one way or another. Usually it's the other side that scores first and then Cagliari goes into gung ho mode which they're actually well-suited for. And then they score too.
Last season, Cagliari had a 6-4-9 24:28 home record, which is almost identical to Bologna's 6-7-6 24:29 away record. Note the combined 2.76 goal average.
Bologna Team News
Bologna is one of those sides whose performances are difficult to predict, especially if you chase last week's results and think the trend will continue. It will not. Some trends that seem to be obvious are that Bologna wins at home and loses on the road, but this too can be broken, as was the case with the recent 2-2 away draw against Lecce.
Bologna is a very stable side with a good roster, a competent coach, and a good game plan. But it seems they are much weaker on the road as their playing style that seeks to dominate the pitch doesn't work as well on the road. It might be a while before Bologna wins a road game, but on the other hand, if they can't win against relegation candidates such as Lecce or Cagliari, when will they?
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Prati, Deiola - S.Esposito, Folorunsho - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski - Holm, Lucumi, Heggem, Lykogiannis - Ferguson, Freuler - Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi - Castro. Coach Italiano.
The Betting Market
Bologna is the better side and this is reflected in the odds of 2.10, but this is going too far, Bologna is poor on the road and Cagliari is very good at home. The price on Cagliari to win this is 3.60, which also leaves a nice Draw No Bet option for tasty 2.50.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.30 as the bookmakers are expecting a slow game, and Both Teams To Score: NO is indeed the more likely of the two outcomes, with a price of 1.75 compared to 2.00 for YES.
The Betting Verdict
We're looking at something similar to 2-2 in Lecce here. The 2-1 Bologna home win against Genoa also sounds an awful lot like the match we expect to see here on Sardinia. Cagliari hasn't yet played an Over 2.5 Goals match on their home stadium this season, but finished the last season with four consecutive overs. There are usually goals here on this stadium as Cagliari seeks to entertain their fans and play to win.
That being said, this fixture ended 0-2 last season, with the hosts being quite wasteful in front of goal as only 2 of 14 shots went on target. We expect at least three goals total this time around. This will either be 0-0 or a goal fest.
The Pick :
Cagliari 2-1 Bologna
