Italian Serie A
2025-10-25 - Parma vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 8
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (22,352)
Saturday, 25 October 2025, 15:00 CET
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Parma Team News
Parma played 0-0 at Genoa after losing 0-1 at home to Lecce, and this is basically what we expect from Parma this season. An average of 0.5 total goals per game, and a scoreless outing.
The best Parma can do at the moment is to control the damage and concede only one goal, or none, as they know they can't really go forward to score two. Though they did against Torino when they had to, but that's not something that happens and not something you can place a bet on.
Until proven otherwise, expect Parma to keep playing slow uneventful games that end with few goals or none at all.
Como Team News
Casual punters will look at Como's 2-0 win against Juventus and jump to the conclusion that it was a dominant home win, against Juventus of all sides, with a handicap and without a conceded goal.
Yet in reality it was Juventus that dominated the proceedings but continuously attacked a congested defence, whereas Como had it easy when they went forward as they had acres of space. So, in the end, the side that played the role of an underdog was more cunning than the favourite that kept tripping over itself.
It is perhaps time to start betting on Como at home against offensive teams, but it will be a while before we dare to do so on the road against defensive ones.
Probable Lineups
Parma (3-5-2): Suzuki - Delprato, Circati, Ndiaye - Lovik, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Pecchia.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Posch, Ramon, Carlos, Vojvoda - Perrone, Da Cunha - Kuhn, Paz, Baturina - Morata. Coach Fabregas.
The Betting Market
Como is priced at 1.95 and that's far too low. It's not as if Como justified its role of favourite against relegation candidates this season. They played Cremonese and Genoa at home and failed to win either fixture.
It's much easier to play when the opponent goes forward (like Juventus did) and leaves space at the back. Attacking a confident defence (like Juventus did, and like Como will do here) is a completely different challenge.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome at 1.83, and Both Teams To Score: NO is a value bet at 1.95 and something that deserves consideration. It is Parma that's unlikely to score, yet Como somehow seems to concede all the time whenever they open up.
The Betting Verdict
Como is a classic Spanish-style side that seems offensive when you watch the game but eventually that game always ends with few goals as there's a lot of possession that leads to nothing. Few people are aware that tiki-taka is actually an underish style. It is so because there's always one more pass to make, even in the penalty box, and you only shoot when the scenario is perfect. If not - another pass coming up.
Of seven Como's games this season, only one went over, the 1-2 at Fiorentina, where Como scored a 94th-minute winner. Five of those six unders had exactly two goals, and the defeat at Bologna was a 1-0.
Parma is no different - six unders out of seven.
Therefore, it's somewhat surprising to see the price of 1.83 on the Over and it remains unclear where do the bookmakers expect the goals to come from. Parma can't score, and certainly won't be able to as Como controls possession, while Como itself is very slow and wasteful with the ball.
The only argument for the Over would be that it often happens in Serie A that, when two poor offenses meet, neither team is afraid of one another so they both go forward -- which in turn results in a high-scoring affair. But still the Under is the most sensible bet here. There's a lot of value in these odds of 1.83.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Parma 1-1 Como
