Italian Serie A
2025-10-25 - Cremonese vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 8
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona, Lombardy, Italy (20,641)
Saturday, 25 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Cremonese Team News
Cremonese played a total of five matches against fellow relegation candidates and didn't lose any of them. They only won once, against Sassuolo, but this is more than a good enough of a tally for a side whose task is simply to stay in the league. If no other relegation candidate beats you then they don't get the upper hand over you.
Now Cremonese returns to probably their favourite scenario where they've got nothing to lose and all to gain as they will defend deep and searching for counter attacking opportunities. It worked once, against Milan, and didn't work the other time against Inter, and this is in fact the first time that Cremonese gets to play the underdog role in front of their own fans.
Cremonese actually only has one point less than Atalanta, because of their sole defeat to Inter whereas Atalanta has a 2-5-0, so this is, believe it or not, a mid-table duel. Atalanta is 8th with 11 points while Cremonese is 10th with 10 points.
Atalanta Team News
It's unbelievable that Atalanta hasn't managed to score against Lazio. They did everything right, they won seemingly every duel and every loose ball, they combined well and created dangerous chances, they came so close to scoring that it's not even funny that they were left scoreless. 16 shots, 6 on target, for an xG of 2.19. This alone explains the more-difficult-to-miss situations the Nerazzuri found themselves in.
And then, at home against Slavia Prague in the Champions League, it got even worse. 0-0 again, but this time with 22 shots, 5 on target, xG of 2.59.
Now even this writer starts to wonder if Atalanta is indeed a quality offensive football team or a team that doesn't know how to score the chances they present themselves with. Sometimes, in football you simply must make the decisive move, and that's enough to score a goal. Some other teams seemingly do everything right but they lack the killer instinct to finish the chances. We don't see it on TV but on the pitch it's a matter of timing, a matter of a split second, an inch, that ruins the goalscoring opportunity.
Is this Atalanta now? Is this the price of fielding shadow striker Lookman and offensive midfielder De Ketelare in the offensive line? Or is it just variance that will turn soon enough?
Probable Lineups
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Bondo, Grassi, Vazquez, Pezzella - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Nicola.
Atalanta (3-4-1-2): Carnesecchi - Djimsiti, Hien, Ahanor - Zappacosta, Ederson, De Roon, Zalewski - Sulemana - De Ketelaere, Samardzic. Coach Juric.
Atalanta will likely rotate the offensive part of the squad as Lookman looks like he needs a rest.
The Betting Market
Atalanta is priced at 1.62 to either end the goal draught with a single goal and end up winning 0-1 or concede as they usually do but then score at least twice to take the win. The price is laughable.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.88 but it's a stretch -- you need both teams to score to have this bet to go through, yet Both Teams To Score: YES is priced higher, at 1.91.
The Betting Verdict
Ultimately, we think Atalanta is paying the price of fielding offensive midfielders where strikers should be. It results with tons of chances, sure, but it also results with lack of actual goalscoring. Here it looks even worse as two true midfielders, De Ketelaere and Samardzic, are expected to lead the line as if they were forwards. False nines just frustrate the heck out of everybody, don't they?
Whoever is looking to bet on this game should be aware that Bonazzoli is a quality striker even though he's not perceived as a big name, and that Jaime Vardy is a perfect striker for a counter-attacking team. Italy takes at least three years off your age so Vardy is no older than 35.
Atalanta will create tons of quality chances but will struggle to score them, and on the other end Cremonese will create only a few but is likely to have an easy time converting them into goals.
In the end, both teams should find the net at least once. We are in fact more worried about Atalanta than Cremonese as the home side is all but certain to find an opening.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cremonese 1-1 Atalanta
