Italian Serie A
2025-10-05 - Napoli vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Sunday, 05 October 2025, 18:00 CET
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Napoli Team News
This team has limits, as was crystal clear in matches against Manchester City and AC Milan, where they met opponents that are simply on a whole other level of football. After these defeats, Napoli bounced back with a 3-2 win against Pisa and then with a 2-1 win against Sporting Lisabon. Interestingly, they conceded a penalty kick in both outings.
This is as good as it's ever going to get for Napoli. This team can't evolve any further, not even with the help of Kevin De Bruyne. It will continue to be a force in Italy, especially when paired up against sides such as Genoa. It won't achieve much in Europe, unless Antonio Conte comes up with some alternate playing style - which he won't.
Enjoy the free money on Napoli home wins against bottom-half teams.
Genoa Team News
As we expected, Genoa can't really score goals. No wonder, since they don't have any quality forwards or wingers. Think of Genoa as a very competent mid-table side that has offense of the quality of Lecce. Genoa lost cleanly at home to Lazio 0-3 on Monday, and did something similar in the second round of the season when Juventus won 0-1.
Genoa is still without a win and it seems we're finally witnessing a regression of this side that was in mid-table for so long. Players from that generation have either left the club or retired one by one, and although some of them are still here, they are now a minority on the pitch and can no longer make things happen.
Genoa is a serious relegation candidate this time around. The league moved on, even the minnows now have quality offensive players, yet Genoa still does not.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (4-1-4-1): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Beukema, Juan Jesus, Olivera - Lobotka - Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Norton-Cuffy, Ostigard, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Ellertsson, Malinovsky, Venturino - Ekuban. Coach Vieira.
The Betting Market
The price of 1.48 on Napoli is a bit low but it's more or less a banker. This side is on a mission to win the scudetto again, and everyone is aware the title is won or lost on matches such as this one. Three points are three points.
Over/Under is a matter of how many goals do you think Napoli will score. Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67 and here you'd be betting on Napoli to win by no more than 2-0. Any Genoa goal would ruin the bet instantly.
Both Teams To Score: NO, on the other hand, is priced at a ridiculously low 1.53. Everyone can score in this league because of lazy defending, which Napoli can be guilty of too, so it's not worth it.
The Betting Verdict
To make matters more interesting, we'll take not just the Napoli win, but a Napoli win by two or more goals. We will do so through a -1 Asian Handicap that gets us our stake back in case of a win by exactly one goal.
The price is actually very good on this AH -1.0 as we'd expect something similar for a -1.50, which in turn is priced at 2.38 if you want to give it a go.
So, when Napoli takes a 1-0 lead at some point, we'll have a price of 1.83 on Napoli to score the second one until the end of the game, and if they don't then we get our stake back. Not a bad proposal.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 2-0 Genoa
