Italian Serie A
2025-10-05 - Fiorentina vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Sunday, 05 October 2025, 15:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Fiorentina Team News
This team has now so obviously regressed compared to last season, which means that we can finally fade them properly instead of trying to pinpoint the situations in which they'll perform. So far this season, they performed exactly twice, against Polissya Zhytomyr and Sigma Olomouc, their mighty opponents in the Conference League. Fiorentina played both matches at home and won both.
The rest? Cagliari, Torino, Napoli, Como and Pisa - the list of teams that Fiorentina hasn't managed to beat in Serie A while not managing to score more than once in any game.
Roma Team News
Most Italian clubs get humbled when they leave the safety of the peninsula and go play against a team from another European country, but Roma actually did well in the Europa League against Nice and Lille. They won the first match and then lost at home to Lille 0-1 with a missed late penalty kick.
In the domestic league, it's all green except for the unfortunate defeat to Torino, a match that never should have ended with the visitors taking the points. Furthermore, that counter attack by Torino was the only goal Roma conceded so far in Serie A.
This is incredibly good by Roma's standards. You don't get to see them perched on the #3 spot on the table, you don't see them perform on the road, and you don't see them get clean sheets.
Their problems lie in offense, however, as they're capable of scoring 1 goal at most. If they're forced to do any more than that, they're in trouble and, compared to last season's Roma, they won't make it.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (3-4-2-1): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Gosens - Gudmunssson, Fazzini - Kean. Coach Pioli.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Celik, Mancini, Ndicka - Wesley, Kone, Cristante, Angelino - Soule, Pellegrini - Dovbyk. Coach Gasperini.
Kean and Gudmundsson are now fully healthy for Fiorentina.
The Betting Market
Expectedly, Roma is favoured, with the price of 2.40 that is a bit lower than we'd like. This means the bookmakers took notice of Roma's performance this season, and of Fiorentina's lack thereof.
Still, this will be a tight game with few goals, so it's not like Roma will simply overrrun Fiorentina. They'll have to work hard. They always seem to have to - no easy victories for this side, but they're used to it.
There's a lot of value in the Under 2.5 Goals and its price of 1.73, as this will be a low-scoring encounter through and through. The only way to reach three goals is if Fiorentina scores - a stretch in its own right - and if Roma scores two - another improbable thing.
The Betting Verdict
Despite all the value in the under, we are somewhat concerned with Fiorentina's home results against sides that come to Florenze to play football. Napoli won 1-3, Como won 1-2. Fiorentina wants to play offensively in these situations.
Roma will have none of it and will try to grab a firm hold of this game, and it's the stronger side that usually dictates how the game looks like. That's Roma, so it's still more likely we'll see an Under.
What's even more likely is Roma's victory. We'll take it with the help of an Asian Handicap (0) to get our stake back in case of a draw.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Fiorentina 0-1 Roma
